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In season

Formula 1 Schedule

Every Formula 1 race on the calendar, with Agatha's calibrated win probabilities over the field where she has a model, and a countdown to the next start.

The Field Card: Agatha's Read on the Grand Prix

Sun 10/4 - Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia

Sepang International Circuit - 3:00 AM ET - 22 cars on the grid

Round 16

George Russell to win

19.2%
  1. George RussellGeorge RussellMercedes19.2%
  2. Andrea Kimi AntonelliAndrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes16.2%
  3. Lando NorrisLando NorrisMcLaren11.4%
  4. Oscar PiastriOscar PiastriMcLaren10.2%
  5. Lewis HamiltonLewis HamiltonFerrari6.7%
  6. Max VerstappenMax VerstappenRed Bull6.2%
  7. Charles LeclercCharles LeclercFerrari6.1%
  8. Liam LawsonLiam LawsonRB4.4%
  9. Gabriel BortoletoGabriel BortoletoAudi3.2%
  10. Isack HadjarIsack HadjarRed Bull2.7%
  11. Pierre GaslyPierre GaslyAlpine2.5%
  12. Franco ColapintoFranco ColapintoAlpine2.4%
  13. Nico HulkenbergNico HulkenbergAudi2.0%
  14. Esteban OconEsteban OconHaas1.7%
  15. Oliver BearmanOliver BearmanHaas1.2%
  16. Carlos SainzCarlos SainzWilliams1.2%
  17. Alexander AlbonAlexander AlbonWilliams0.8%
  18. Sergio PerezSergio PerezCadillac0.6%
  19. Fernando AlonsoFernando AlonsoAston Martin0.5%
  20. Valtteri BottasValtteri BottasCadillac0.4%
  21. Arvid LindbladArvid LindbladRB0.3%
  22. Lance StrollLance StrollAston Martin0.3%

Arvid Lindblad: priced mostly from the car (fewer than 30 championship races in the data); never the outright call.

WHY?

George Russell heads the grid on Agatha's numbers at 19.2%, driver and car priced together.

Calibrated win probabilities from 77 seasons of championship results, driver and car priced together. 2026 reset the technical regulations, so the car hierarchy is still being learned and early numbers run less sharp than the historical backtest. Information only, never a staked play.