Best NFL Bets

The model's number on Quentin Johnston is 2.9 catches; at a line of 3.5, that reads under. He has been catching about 3 balls a game.

The market at Pinnacle prices the Houston Texans near 53%; Agatha's number is 55%. A gap of 2 points is the reason this is a pick and not a pass. Recent form splits them: 4-6 for the Texans, 0-10 for the Colts.

Agatha makes the New York Giants 66% to win this game; the best price at Pinnacle implies only about 54%. That 12-point gap is why this is a pick. Recent form splits them: 5-5 for the Giants, 4-6 for the Titans.

Her read on Cam Skattebo is Under 2.5 receptions. That means a quieter night than the 2.8 receptions a game he has been running.

Erick All projects to about 2.2 catches in Agatha's model, against a line of 0.5: she takes the over. His recent rate sits near 2.2 receptions a game. That is asking it of the Steelers, who allow only about 19 catches a game against a league average of 20.6.

Agatha makes the Minnesota Vikings 60% to win this game; the best price at Pinnacle implies only about 51%. That 9-point gap is why this is a pick. Recent form splits them: 8-2 for the Vikings, 3-7 for the Buccaneers.

Agatha's NFL model makes it about 2.8 catches for Emeka Egbuka against a line of 4.5: the under is the call. Egbuka has been running about 3.2 catches a game. The Vikings allow just 16.5 catches a game against the league's 20.6.

Jordan Addison projects to about 2.3 catches in Agatha's model, against a line of 3.5: she takes the under. He has been catching about 2 balls a game. The counterweight: the Buccaneers allow about 22.7 catches a game, over the league's 20.6.

Agatha and the market disagree here, and she is taking her own side: 62% on the Baltimore Ravens against an implied 59% at DraftKings, a 3-point gap. Recent form splits them: 6-4 for the Ravens, 4-6 for the Cowboys.

Agatha leans the New Orleans Saints in this one. Last time out, Tyler Shough put up 27/34, 252 YDS, 1 TD for the Saints. The Raiders have dropped 6 of their last ten; the Saints stand 6-4. Her projection lands LV 20, NO 24.