AGATHANo gut feelings

In season

NFL Schedule

Every NFL game of the next eight days, with Agatha's call, her confidence and her projected final score wherever her model covers it. The next eight days hold 30 NFL games, 14 of them today.

The Slate: Agatha's Call on Every Game

Every game is a graded 1u call: Agatha backs the side more likely to win, with her confidence beside it. An EDGE comes from a validated model; a LEAN is her call on a game no validated model covers yet. Both are staked the same. Prop picks, where a game has them, ride inside its card.

Tue 9/29 (0)Wed 9/30 (0)Fri 10/2 (0)Sat 10/3 (0)

Sunday, September 2714 games

  1. 80%
    Buffalo Bills to win

    Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills1:00 PM ET1.31 at MyBookie

    Agatha projects LAC 17, BUF 28

    ML 3.80 / 1.28spread -7total 50

    1u

    Receptions props

    • Quentin Johnston Under 3.5 receptions - 1.56 FanDuel - 61% 1u
      WHY?

      The model's number on Quentin Johnston is 2.9 catches; at a line of 3.5, that reads under. He has been catching about 3 balls a game.

  2. 66%
    New York Giants to win

    Tennessee Titans @ New York Giants1:00 PM ET1.79 at Pinnacle

    Agatha projects TEN 19, NYG 24

    ML 2.15 / 1.74spread -2.5total 37.5

    1u

    Receptions props

    • Cam Skattebo Under 2.5 receptions - 1.54 DraftKings - 61% 1u
      WHY?

      Her read on Cam Skattebo is Under 2.5 receptions. That means a quieter night than the 2.8 receptions a game he has been running.

  3. 51%
    Cincinnati Bengals to win

    Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers1:00 PM ET1.60 at Pinnacle

    Agatha projects CIN 22, PIT 21

    ML 1.57 / 2.48spread +3total 42.5

    1u

    Receptions props

    • Erick All Over 0.5 receptions - 1.44 FanDuel - 67% 1u
      WHY?

      Erick All projects to about 2.2 catches in Agatha's model, against a line of 0.5: she takes the over. His recent rate sits near 2.2 receptions a game. That is asking it of the Steelers, who allow only about 19 catches a game against a league average of 20.6.

  4. 60%
    Minnesota Vikings to win

    Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers4:05 PM ET1.91 at Pinnacle

    Agatha projects MIN 23, TB 20

    ML 1.86 / 1.98spread -0.5total 42.5

    1u

    Receptions props

    • Emeka Egbuka Under 4.5 receptions - 1.63 FanDuel - 61% 1u
      WHY?

      Agatha's NFL model makes it about 2.8 catches for Emeka Egbuka against a line of 4.5: the under is the call. Egbuka has been running about 3.2 catches a game. The Vikings allow just 16.5 catches a game against the league's 20.6.

    • Jordan Addison Under 3.5 receptions - 1.65 Hard Rock - 60% 1u
      WHY?

      Jordan Addison projects to about 2.3 catches in Agatha's model, against a line of 3.5: she takes the under. He has been catching about 2 balls a game. The counterweight: the Buccaneers allow about 22.7 catches a game, over the league's 20.6.

Every call is graded and counted in the record at 1u, edge and lean alike, so the record is a straight count at a flat stake.

Injury Tracker

PlayerTeamStatusInjuryReported
Jayden DanielsWashington CommandersOutArm31m ago
Keon ColemanBuffalo BillsQuestionableLeg1h ago
Caleb WilliamsChicago BearsOutLeg1h ago
Tyjae SpearsTennessee TitansQuestionableLeg1h ago
Anthony Johnson Jr.Chicago BearsInjured ReserveOther1h ago
Puka NacuaLos Angeles RamsDoubtfulLeg1h ago
Michael Pittman Jr.Pittsburgh SteelersQuestionableLeg2h ago
Jaylen WarrenPittsburgh SteelersQuestionableArm2h ago
Nico CollinsHouston TexansOutLeg2h ago
Brock BowersLas Vegas RaidersQuestionableLeg2h ago
Zay FlowersBaltimore RavensQuestionableLeg2h ago
Jalen CokerCarolina PanthersQuestionableLeg2h ago

Players drop off when their latest report reads healthy; full histories will live on player pages.