Free calculator
Closing Line Value Calculator
American1.952 decimal
American1.870 decimal
American2.050 decimal
For comparison, Agatha's graded picks average +0.88% price CLV over 1,839 picks with a stored close.
Price CLV +4.43%; the implied probability moved +2.27 pts.
How to use it
- Enter the price you took and the last price before the start on the same side, at the same book if you can.
- Add the other side of the closing market to see the value with the book's margin removed.
- For a batch, switch to Many bets and paste one pair of prices per line.
- Judge a batch, not one bet: a single bet's CLV is mostly noise.
The formula
Price CLV compares the decimal odds you took with the decimal odds at the close.
price CLV = (your decimal / closing decimal - 1) x 100 probability move = (1 / closing decimal - 1 / your decimal) x 100 points no-vig EV = fair closing probability x your decimal - 1
Price CLV is exactly the figure Agatha's record stores for every pick with a closing price, measured at the same book.
You took -105 (1.9524) and it closed -115 (1.8696): 1.9524 / 1.8696 - 1 = +4.43%. The implied probability moved from 51.2% to 53.5%, +2.27 pts. With +105 on the other side at the close, your side's fair chance makes the price you took worth +2.1% per bet.
Edge cases
- Compare like with like: the same book and the same market. A close from another book, or a moneyline against a run line, measures the books, not your bet.
- Price CLV keeps the margin in. The same -105 against a -115 / -105 close is still +4.43% in price, but that closing market held 4.5%, and against its fair chance the bet is worth -0.3%.
- Spreads and totals move in points as well as price, and price alone misses a line that moved from -3 to -3.5. Agatha stores no closing price for spreads yet, so the table below says so rather than printing a zero.
- A close in a market few people bet says less than a close in a major market.
From Agatha's record
Agatha's closing line value
Every graded pick with a stored closing price, measured at the same book the pick was listed at.
| Sport | Bet type | Mean CLV | Beat the close | With a close | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTA | Match winner | +0.51% | 34.6% | 332 | 619 |
| MLB | Strikeout props | +1.02% | 31.1% | 598 | 598 |
| MLB | Moneyline | +0.65% | 44.9% | 439 | 440 |
| ATP | Match winner | +0.93% | 44.9% | 167 | 306 |
| NCAAF | Spread | no closing price stored yet | 0 | 273 | |
| NCAAF | Moneyline | +1.00% | 41.1% | 56 | 56 |
| MLS | Moneyline | +0.67% | 43.1% | 51 | 54 |
| UFC | Fight winner | +4.43% | 67.9% | 28 | 50 |
| WNBA | Player props | +3.82% | 44.4% | 45 | 47 |
| NFL | Player props | -1.50% | 32.4% | 37 | 41 |
| WNBA | Moneyline | +0.97% | 52.9% | 34 | 34 |
| NFL | Moneyline | +0.49% | 27.3% | 33 | 33 |
| NFL | Spread | no closing price stored yet | 0 | 33 | |
| CFL | Player props | no closing price stored yet | 0 | 27 | |
| CFL | Moneyline | +1.02% | 47.4% | 19 | 19 |
Sports and bet types with fewer than 10 graded picks are left out of the table.
The mean carries a standard error of 0.10 points; the same picks' return on investment carries 1.71 points. Over the same picks the CLV estimate is about 16 times tighter, which is why it is the number to watch while a record is young.
One honest caveat: a pick's price is the best among many books at the moment it is frozen, and an outlier price tends to drift back toward the pack. Part of a positive same-book CLV is that drift, not foresight.
The guide What is closing line value? goes further.
As of . See the full track record
CLV calculator questions
What is closing line value?
The difference between the price you took and the last price before the start. The closing price carries the most information the market ever has, so beating it regularly is the best early sign that a bettor's prices are good.
How do you calculate CLV?
Divide your decimal odds by the closing decimal odds and subtract 1: -105 against a -115 close is +4.43%.
Is positive CLV the same as winning?
No. A bet with good CLV still loses often, and a run of results can go either way for hundreds of bets. CLV measures the price, which settles much faster than the results do.
Should I use the book's close or the no-vig close?
Both, for different questions. The book's close says whether you got a better number than was later available; the no-vig close says whether that number was better than fair. The no-vig calculator shows the fair side of any closing market.
How many bets before CLV means something?
Far fewer than for results, but still hundreds: one bet's CLV is noise. Agatha's own numbers below show how much tighter the CLV estimate is than the return on the same picks.