Free calculator
Hedge Calculator
Your open bet
What the bet returns if it wins, stake included (a parlay down to its last leg, a futures ticket).
American1.909 decimal
The same net whichever side wins.
Estimate: the cost assumes the hedge price carries 4.88% of hold, the median two-way moneyline hold at the books Agatha tracks over the 30 days since August 28, 2026.
Two outcomes only: a market with a draw needs a second hedge, which this calculator does not cover.
Hedge $36.45: you net $23.13 if your bet wins and $23.13 if the hedge wins.
How to use it
- Enter your open bet: its stake and odds, or its stake and what it returns if it wins. The second is the easy way for a parlay down to its last leg or a futures ticket.
- Enter the best price you can find on the other side.
- Choose an equal result, your stake back, or slide to a hedge stake of your own.
- Compare the two nets and the expected cost before you place anything.
The formula
R is what your bet returns if it wins (stake included), S is its stake, and d is the hedge's decimal odds.
equal result: hedge = R / d stake back: hedge = S / (d - 1) net if your bet wins = R - S - hedge net if hedge wins = hedge x (d - 1) - S
A $10.00 three-leg parlay has won two legs and returns $69.58 if the last one wins. The other side of the last leg is -110 (1.9091). An equal hedge is $69.58 / 1.9091 = $36.45, and either way you net $23.13. Hedging for your stake back takes $11.00: you net $48.58 if the parlay wins and $0.00 if it loses.
The price of that even split: in a -110 / -110 market the hedge side is a 50.0% chance, so the $36.45 hedge is expected to lose $1.66. That is the book's margin, paid a second time.
When a hedge is worth its cost
A hedge is a second bet at the book's margin, so on average it costs money. What it buys is a smaller swing: less of your result rides on one game.
It can make sense when the open bet has grown large next to your bankroll, and losing it would change what you can do next. It rarely makes sense when the open bet is small next to your bankroll: then you pay the margin to remove a swing you could have lived with.
Shop the hedge price. A better price on the other side cuts the cost directly, and prices on one game differ from book to book; the live odds lists on the board show them side by side.
Edge cases
- No positive outcome: when the hedge price is short, or the open bet returns little, every hedge stake leaves at least one side at or under zero. The calculator says so plainly and shows the most even split.
- Three-way markets need two hedges, one on each other outcome; this calculator covers two outcomes only.
- A cash-out offer is the book pricing this hedge for you. Compare its figure with the equal-result hedge here before you take it.
- A partial hedge is any custom stake between none and the equal result: less protection, less cost.
From the odds Agatha tracks
What a hedge costs: closing hold by league
Every hedge pays the book's margin again. These are the median closing holds on two-way moneylines and spreads at the books Agatha tracks, over the last 30 days.
Median hold at the close over the last 30 days (since August 28, 2026), across 70,020 two-way moneyline markets.
| League | Market | Median hold | Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | Two-way moneyline | 4.50% | 2,239 |
| MLB | Two-way moneyline | 4.51% | 25,737 |
| NHL | Two-way moneyline | 4.58% | 466 |
| CFL | Two-way moneyline | 4.61% | 695 |
| WNBA | Two-way moneyline | 4.74% | 1,807 |
| NCAAF | Two-way moneyline | 4.83% | 10,544 |
| UFC | Two-way moneyline | 4.91% | 2,261 |
| ATP | Two-way moneyline | 5.11% | 8,907 |
| WTA | Two-way moneyline | 5.30% | 15,090 |
| Esports | Two-way moneyline | 6.94% | 2,274 |
| CFL | Spread | 4.55% | 546 |
| NFL | Spread | 4.55% | 1,775 |
| WNBA | Spread | 4.55% | 1,290 |
| MLB | Spread | 4.65% | 18,214 |
| NCAAF | Spread | 4.75% | 10,678 |
| MLS | Spread | 5.20% | 726 |
| La Liga | Spread | 5.54% | 107 |
| NHL | Spread | 6.17% | 347 |
| UFC | Spread | 6.37% | 131 |
| Esports | Spread | 7.61% | 306 |
Hedge calculator questions
How much should I hedge?
For the same result either way, divide what your bet returns by the hedge's decimal odds: $69.58 / 1.9091 = $36.45. For your stake back, divide your stake by the hedge's decimal odds minus one. Anything in between is a partial hedge.
Does hedging make money?
Not on average. The hedge is a bet at the book's price, so it carries the book's margin, and its expected value is below zero. It trades some of your expected return for a narrower range of outcomes.
How do I hedge the last leg of a parlay?
Enter the parlay's stake and its potential return, then the best price on the other side of the last leg. The parlay calculator gives you the potential return if you need it.
Is a cash-out the same as a hedge?
It does the same job: it swaps an open bet for a fixed amount. The book sets the cash-out figure, so compare it with the equal-result hedge at the best price you can find.
Why can't a hedge leave both sides positive?
When the open bet returns less than the hedge price needs, the numbers do not reach. The equal-result hedge is the best both-ways split there is, and if it is at or under zero, no stake does better.