How Agatha Grades Every Pick

The short version

• Every pick is graded win, loss, push or void, at the line and price it froze with, one unit each, edge and lean alike.
• Wins, losses and pushes count on the record. A push returns the stake: it nets zero, still counts as one unit staked because the bet was made, and is left out of the hit rate.
• A void is no action. It counts nowhere: not in the win and loss record, the units, the ROI, the hit rate or closing line value.
• A game has to be played on its board day. If it is postponed, canceled or moved to another board day, the pick is void; a game suspended and later resumed keeps its pick.
• Grades come from the official final score and official stats, through one grader, and a grade is never edited once it lands.

When a card becomes a pick

• A card on the board is dynamic until 15 minutes before its start: its best price and book can still move with the market, and it can still be delisted if it drops below the board's bar.
• 15 minutes before the start it freezes. Its side, line, price and book are fixed, it takes the next ticket number, and it is sealed so it can never be changed afterwards.
• Nothing new is listed with less than 15 minutes to go, so no pick can be added once a game is about to start.
• A card pulled before its freeze was never a pick: it takes no number, is never sealed, and is never graded or counted.
• The frozen pick is what gets graded, at its frozen line and price. Every pick is one unit.

The board day and the day rule

Agatha's rule for a moved game is stricter than most sportsbooks, which usually keep a postponed bet alive for a set window after the scheduled start. Here a game has to be played on its board day, or the pick is void.

• A board day runs from 3:00 AM to 3:00 AM Eastern. A game that starts before 3:30 AM Eastern belongs to the previous board day, so a late card stays with the slate it was part of.
• A pick is filed on the board day of its frozen start time, and it never changes day after that.
• If the start moves to another board day before the game begins, the pick is void, however small the move: a game pushed from 11:50 PM to 3:40 AM has left its day. A move inside the same board day, like a later start the same evening, changes nothing.On the card: Void: not played on its day
• A game that starts, is suspended and resumes later keeps its pick until it finishes, even when play resumes on another day.
• UFC bout times are estimates that drift with the card, so a bout moved across midnight with its card is not voided by that move alone. A postponed or canceled card still voids its picks.

Postponed, canceled and games that never start

• Postponed: void, the moment the postponement is posted, in every sport.On the card: Void: game postponed
• Canceled: void.On the card: Void: game canceled
• Still not started 8 hours after its scheduled start, while other games in that league show the feeds are working: void. For MLB, MLB's own live feed makes that call. UFC bouts are never voided this way.On the card: Void: game did not start as scheduled
• A delay on its own voids nothing. A game that starts later on the same board day is graded like any other.
• After a void for a postponed, moved or unstarted game, the game can be listed again on the day it is actually played, as a new pick with a new ticket number. The void stays on the record either way.
• A void is final. Once a pick is voided it is never turned back into a win or a loss.

Moneylines

• A moneyline pick is graded on the official final score: its side wins or it loses.
• A two-way moneyline that ends level is a push, stake back.
• An official shortened MLB game, called after it became official, still settles the moneyline on its final score. Only props need a full game.
• A pitching change never voids a moneyline: the pick is on the team, not the starter.

Soccer three-way moneylines

• Soccer moneylines are three-way: home win, draw or away win. This is the rule for MLS and every other soccer league on the site.
• A pick on a team wins only if that team wins. A draw is a loss for a team pick, never a push.
• A knockout match decided in extra time or on penalties settles as a draw at 90 minutes, so a team pick loses, even when its team goes through.

Spreads

• A spread pick is graded on its side's final margin plus its frozen line: above zero wins, below zero loses, exactly zero pushes.
• For example, at -7.5 the side has to win by 8 or more. At +3 it wins by losing by 2 or less, or by winning, and a 3 point loss is a push.
• A final without a score waits for the score; it is never guessed.

Tennis

• A match pick is on a player to win the match, graded from the official result.
• A retirement or a default, at any stage of the match: void, even though the scoreboard names a winner.On the card: Void: retirement - match not completed
• A walkover, where the match is never played: void.On the card: Void: walkover - match never played
• The named player is not in the final match, after a withdrawal or a late change: void.On the card: Void: player not in final match
• A match moved to another board day before it starts is void, like every sport. A match stopped by rain and resumed keeps its pick.

UFC

• A fight pick is on a fighter, not a corner. If the named fighter is replaced, the pick is void.On the card: Void: fighter replaced
• A draw is a push, stake back.
• A no contest is void.On the card: Void: no contest
• A postponed or canceled card voids its picks. A bout time that drifts with its card does not.

MLB strikeout props

• Graded on the named pitcher's official strikeouts once the game is final: above the line the Over wins, below it the Under wins, exactly on it is a push.
• The named pitcher does not start the game, because he was scratched or pitched in relief: void.On the card: Void: pitcher did not start
• A full game is 9 innings, or 8.5 when the home side leads after the top of the ninth. Extra innings count as a full game.
• A game called before a full game voids the prop, unless the Over had already cleared the line when play stopped. Then the Over wins and the Under loses, because no later pitch could change it. A count at or below the line is void. This follows the DraftKings baseball rule for full-game player props.On the card: Void: game shortened

WNBA player props

• WNBA props on assists and made threes are graded on the player's official stat line once the final box score lands: above the line the Over wins, below it the Under wins, exactly on it is a push.
• The final box score lists the player as did not play: void.On the card: Void: player did not play
• The game's own injury report rules the player out (out, inactive or did not play, never questionable or doubtful) and the player is missing from the final box score: void.On the card: Void: player ruled out, did not play
• A player missing from the box score with no word either way is not a void. The pick waits for clear evidence.

NFL receptions props

• Graded on the player's receptions in the final box score. A player who takes part stands even at zero catches: the Under wins and the Over loses. Landing exactly on a whole-number line is a push.
• Void only when the player did not play: inactive, or listed as not playing on the game roster.On the card: Void: player did not play
• Missing from a stats table does not count as not playing. Without the roster's word, the pick waits.
• This matches the house rule of the major US sportsbooks: a player prop stands when the player takes part.

CFL receiving yards props

• Graded on the player's official receiving yards from the league's own stats, once the league marks the game finished.
• A player who took part is graded even at zero yards. Landing exactly on the line is a push.
• No official line for the player 8 hours after kickoff: void, did not play.On the card: Void: player did not play
• A line of all zeros with no sign the player took part waits for a person to settle it from the box score; it is never voided or graded by machine.

Parlays

Agatha's record is single picks, one unit each; a parlay never enters it. Her parlay grading follows the book standard, and the parlay calculator uses the same rule.

• A leg that pushes or is void drops out, and the payout is worked out again from the legs left.
• Any losing leg loses the parlay.
• Every remaining leg won: the parlay wins at the recomputed payout. With one leg left, it settles as that single bet.
• Every leg pushed or void: the parlay is a push and the stake comes back.

How and when grades land

• Every pick, edge or lean, goes through one grader, and it grades as soon as the game is final.
• Props wait for the official stat line, which can land hours after the game ends.
• When the data are unclear, such as a missing score, a team that does not match the frozen pick, or two players sharing a name, the pick waits for clear evidence or for a person to settle it. Nothing is guessed.
• A grade is never edited. A win, loss, push or void, once stamped, is final and stays on the track record, and every numbered pick keeps its sealed receipt so the frozen pick behind any grade can be checked.

The numbers so far

These counts come straight from Agatha's graded record and refresh every hour. Every pick behind them is on the track record, each numbered pick has a sealed receipt, and how the picks are made is on the methodology page.