Guide
How Long Do Losing Streaks Last?
By Agatha Research Desk. Updated
Record numbers refresh hourly; last refreshed .
The math
Every bet is a separate draw. With a win rate p, each bet loses with chance 1 - p, and a run of k straight losses starting at any given bet has chance (1 - p) to the power k. Over hundreds of bets there are hundreds of places a run can start, so a run that looks rare on any one day becomes likely somewhere in a season.
The tables below are exact, not simulated: they count every way a sequence of bets can fall. At a 55% win rate, going from 500 to 1,000 bets adds about 0.9 to the longest run to expect. 52.4% is the break-even win rate at -110.
| Bets | 50% | 52.4% break-even at -110 | 55% | 58% | 60% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.6 |
| 250 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 5.6 |
| 500 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 6.4 |
| 1,000 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 7.1 |
| 2,500 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 8.1 |
| Bets | 50% | 52.4% break-even at -110 | 55% | 58% | 60% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 17.0% | 12.3% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 3.6% |
| 250 | 38.4% | 28.9% | 20.3% | 12.8% | 9.2% |
| 500 | 62.5% | 49.9% | 36.9% | 24.3% | 17.7% |
| 1,000 | 86.1% | 75.1% | 60.4% | 42.9% | 32.4% |
| 2,500 | 99.3% | 96.9% | 90.2% | 75.5% | 62.6% |
Exact counts for independent bets at a fixed win rate.
Try your own numbers
Enter your own number of bets, win rate and typical price. The run figures are exact; the drawdown figures come from 1,000 simulated runs at one unit per bet.
Losing streak and drawdown calculator
Up to 5,000
Your long-run win rate, 1 to 99
American1.909 decimal
The run length you want the chance of
Drawdowns are the deepest fall below a running high, at one unit per bet, from simulated runs with a fixed seed. The run math is exact.
Over 500 bets at a 55.0% win rate, expect a longest losing run of about 7.3; the chance of 8 or more in a row is 36.9%; the median worst drawdown is -16.55u.
Drawdowns
A drawdown is the fall from the highest point a running total has reached to the lowest point after it, counted in units at one unit per bet. It is usually deeper than the longest losing run suggests, because losses do not need to come in a row to add up.
From Agatha's record
Worst drawdown at Agatha's own prices, one unit per pick
To see what luck alone does at Agatha's own prices, the same 2,587 prices were replayed 2,000 times with no edge at all, each pick winning exactly as often as its price implies. The median worst drawdown was -53.12u, and 1 run in 10 fell to -88.51u or deeper. Agatha's actual worst is -84.38u, and 12.2% of the no-edge runs fell at least that far.
Paying the margin changes the picture. A bettor with no skill who pays a 4.55% hold on the same prices has a median worst drawdown of -134.36u, and 89.2% of those runs fall as far as Agatha's worst. The margin, not the streaks, is what sinks a bettor with no edge.
| Bettor | Worst drawdown | Deepest 1 in 10 | Reach the record's worst |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agatha's recordnow -84.38u from its +25.42u high | -84.38u | - | - |
| No edge at all | -53.12u | -88.51u | 12.2% |
| No skill, 4.55% hold | -134.36u | -190.57u | 89.2% |
For the two replays, worst drawdown is the median across 2,000 runs of the same prices.
Agatha's drawdown is counted pick by pick in start order, from a +25.42u high reached during September 3, 2026. The running total chart further down counts at each board day's close, so its high can read lower.
As of . See the full track record
From Agatha's record
Agatha's own streaks
- Longest losing run
- 7 losses
- Longest winning run
- 16 wins
- Current run
- 3 losses
- Longest losing run expected by chance
- 8.5
- Board days up / down
- 16 / 19
- Most losing days in a row
- 8
- Losing days in a row now
- 8
Agatha's longest losing run is 7 picks, and all 7 started at the same moment (Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET): one slate settling together. Her longest winning run is 16. At her loss rate of 41.7% over 2,626 decided picks, chance alone would produce a longest run of about 8.5, and a run of 7 or more 96.6% of the time.
By board day the record has 16 up days and 19 down. The longest run of losing days is 8, and the record is in it now: 8 losing days in a row. The best day was September 19, 2026 (+18.27u on 149 picks, 94-54-1); the worst was September 5, 2026 (-27.53u on 146 picks, 65-80-1). These day totals count every graded pick; the calendar on the track record counts only Agatha's Top Picks board, so the same day can read differently there.
Every pick behind these numbers is on the track record, graded and linked to its sealed receipt.
High +16.81u at the close of August 31, 2026. Now -58.96u. Counted at each board day's close, over every graded pick.
Show the numbers by day
| Board day | Picks | Record | Day | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| August 24, 2026 | 121 | 75-46 | +13.59u | +13.59u |
| August 25, 2026 | 130 | 67-63 | -16.27u | -2.68u |
| August 26, 2026 | 122 | 75-47 | +5.39u | +2.71u |
| August 27, 2026 | 35 | 20-15 | +1.48u | +4.19u |
| August 28, 2026 | 78 | 46-32 | +2.23u | +6.41u |
| August 29, 2026 | 58 | 32-26 | -0.90u | +5.52u |
| August 30, 2026 | 89 | 59-30 | +9.45u | +14.96u |
| August 31, 2026 | 80 | 54-26 | +1.85u | +16.81u |
| September 1, 2026 | 80 | 50-30 | -3.09u | +13.71u |
| September 2, 2026 | 74 | 49-25 | +3.07u | +16.78u |
| September 3, 2026 | 70 | 46-24 | -0.27u | +16.52u |
| September 4, 2026 | 74 | 38-35-1 | -10.29u | +6.23u |
| September 5, 2026 | 146 | 65-80-1 | -27.53u | -21.30u |
| September 6, 2026 | 54 | 34-20 | +4.99u | -16.31u |
| September 7, 2026 | 29 | 17-12 | +0.54u | -15.76u |
| September 8, 2026 | 44 | 27-17 | +1.03u | -14.73u |
| September 9, 2026 | 69 | 43-25-1 | +8.62u | -6.12u |
| September 10, 2026 | 30 | 18-12 | +0.17u | -5.95u |
| September 11, 2026 | 43 | 28-15 | +3.66u | -2.29u |
| September 12, 2026 | 146 | 73-73 | -12.47u | -14.76u |
| September 13, 2026 | 95 | 57-38 | -1.49u | -16.25u |
| September 14, 2026 | 51 | 26-25 | -8.20u | -24.45u |
| September 15, 2026 | 62 | 34-28 | -7.65u | -32.10u |
| September 16, 2026 | 35 | 21-14 | +1.12u | -30.98u |
| September 17, 2026 | 45 | 28-17 | +2.00u | -28.98u |
| September 18, 2026 | 54 | 34-20 | -0.21u | -29.19u |
| September 19, 2026 | 149 | 94-54-1 | +18.27u | -10.92u |
| September 20, 2026 | 96 | 54-42 | -13.79u | -24.72u |
| September 21, 2026 | 66 | 38-28 | -4.78u | -29.50u |
| September 22, 2026 | 83 | 54-29 | -0.22u | -29.71u |
| September 23, 2026 | 59 | 35-24 | -0.98u | -30.70u |
| September 24, 2026 | 62 | 36-26 | -1.69u | -32.39u |
| September 25, 2026 | 64 | 36-28 | -5.41u | -37.80u |
| September 26, 2026 | 130 | 64-66 | -20.14u | -57.94u |
| September 27, 2026 | 7 | 4-3 | -1.02u | -58.96u |
As of . See the full track record
The honest read
A drawdown as deep as Agatha's worst (-84.38u) happens to a bettor with no edge at these prices in about 12.2% of runs. On its own it does not show the picks are worse than their prices, and it does not show they are better either.
The win rate is 58.30% against the 59.37% the prices needed, 1.06 points short. A win rate over 2,626 decided picks is only known to within about 1.92 points either way. The record cannot yet tell bad luck from a small negative edge.
What to do in a streak
- Keep stakes flat. Every Agatha pick is one unit, win or lose; nothing is sized up after a loss or down after a win.
- Do not chase. Raising stakes to win back a drawdown makes the next losing run cost more, and losing runs keep arriving at the same rate.
- Set limits before you start: a budget for the week and a point where you stop for the day. Decide them while you are calm, not in the middle of a run.
- Take breaks. Time away costs nothing, and the math on this page keeps producing streaks whether you watch or not.
- If betting stops being fun, or you find yourself betting to get money back, talk to someone. Responsible play lists the tools and the helplines.
Questions
How long can a losing streak last?
Longer than it feels like it should. At a 52.4% win rate, the break-even at -110, the longest losing run to expect over 1,000 bets is about 8.7, and the chance of 10 or more in a row is 26.8%.
Does a losing streak mean the picks are bad?
Not on its own. Compare the streak with what chance produces at the same win rate and number of bets, then look at closing line value, which settles far sooner than results.
What is Agatha's longest losing streak?
7 picks, all starting at the same time (Sep 26, 3:30 PM ET). At her win rate over 2,626 decided picks, chance alone produces a run at least that long 96.6% of the time.
Should I raise my stakes to win it back?
No. A losing run does not make the next bet more likely to win, and a bigger stake makes the next run cost more. Flat stakes keep every bet the same size, which is how Agatha's record is kept.
How big should each bet be to survive a streak?
Small enough that the longest run you should expect costs a slice of your bankroll, not a chunk of it. The Kelly calculator shows how fast the answer shrinks when your win chance is a little lower than you think.
What is a drawdown?
The fall from a running total's highest point to its lowest point after it. See the glossary.