AGATHANo gut feelings

MLB Heat Check

MLB Heat Check, Los Angeles Dodgers 8-2 in Their Last 10

Published

Ten games is not a season, but it is a mood, and moods decide a lot of games. The current mood around MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers keep winning, Colorado Rockies keep losing, and everybody else lives somewhere in the weather between.

The warm end of the table

Nobody is playing better than Los Angeles Dodgers right now. The record says 8-2 over their last 10; the runs column says even more, a +20 margin that works out to 6.4 scored and 4.4 allowed a night.

Milwaukee Brewers are the closest thing to company at 7-3, with a +29 runs margin that says the record is no fluke.

New York Mets (7-3) round out the warm end of the ledger.

The whole league is averaging 4.8 runs a game in this stretch, which makes Los Angeles Dodgers outrunning that number by 1.6 per night the loudest stat on the page.

The deep freeze

At the bottom of the temperature map sit Colorado Rockies: 3-7 in their last 10, -19 on runs margin. That is about 1.9 a game in the wrong direction, and no lineup shuffle fixes it overnight.

They have company at the cold end: Washington Nationals, 3-7 over the same window.

Do not ignore the middle class, either: Houston Astros (5-5) and Atlanta Braves (5-5) sit close enough that a single hot or cold series flips their order.

The board

Here is the warm half of the form table, last ten games for every club:

TeamLast 10Runs +/-
Los Angeles Dodgers8-2+20
Milwaukee Brewers7-3+29
New York Mets7-3+20
New York Yankees7-3+15
Athletics7-3+12

Worth remembering

Records fib a little and runs margins fib less. When the two columns disagree about a team, trust the margin, it is the slower liar.

One to circle: Los Angeles Dodgers meet Miami Marlins in their next game, and we will find out quickly whether this stretch travels.

More MLB on Agatha: Today's MLB picks

Generated by Agatha from her own database, every number is a query, not an opinion. For entertainment and information; not gambling advice. 21+.

More from the Desk

Every story on the Desk