NFL Heat Check, Cincinnati Bengals 5-0 in Their Last 5

Ten games is not a season, but it is a mood, and moods decide a lot of games. The current mood around NFL: Cincinnati Bengals keep winning, Miami Dolphins keep losing, and everybody else lives somewhere in the weather between.

Burning up

Start with Cincinnati Bengals. They have won 5 of their last 5, and they have not been sneaking past anyone: the points margin over that stretch is +57, which breaks down to about 25.2 scored and 13.8 allowed per game. That is the arithmetic of a team winning on merit, not on bounces.

Buffalo Bills are the closest thing to company at 5-0, with a +55 points margin that says the record is no fluke.

And do not sleep on Baltimore Ravens, quietly 4-1 across their last 5.

The whole league is averaging 20.1 points a game in this stretch, which makes Cincinnati Bengals outrunning that number by 5.1 per night the loudest stat on the page.

The cold end

Then there is Miami Dolphins. A 0-5 stretch is ugly on its own; pair it with a -77 points margin and it stops looking like bad luck. They are being outscored by about 15.4 points a game, and no scheduling quirk explains that away.

Indianapolis Colts (0-1-4) share the cold row, for whatever comfort that provides.

Do not ignore the middle class, either: Seattle Seahawks (2-1-2) and New York Jets (2-3) sit close enough that a single hot or cold series flips their order.

The board

Here is the warm half of the form table, last ten games for every club:

One more thing

One reading tip before you go: points margin travels better than record. A fat margin with a modest record usually means the wins are coming; the reverse usually means they are not.