AGATHANo gut feelings

Formula 1

2026 Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia Prediction

Agatha's win probabilities

Outright call: George Russell, 19.2%

EntrantWin
George Russell Mercedes19.2%
Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes16.2%
Lando Norris McLaren11.4%
Oscar Piastri McLaren10.2%
Lewis Hamilton Ferrari6.7%
Max Verstappen Red Bull6.2%
Charles Leclerc Ferrari6.1%
Liam Lawson RB4.4%
Gabriel Bortoleto Audi3.2%
Isack Hadjar Red Bull2.7%

George Russell heads the grid on Agatha's numbers at 19.2%, driver and car priced together.

Calibrated win probabilities from 77 seasons of championship results, driver and car priced together. 2026 reset the technical regulations, so the car hierarchy is still being learned and early numbers run less sharp than the historical backtest. Information only, never a staked play.