2026 Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia Prediction
Sunday, Oct 4, 2026, 3:00 AM ET, Sepang International Circuit, Kuala Lumpur, Round 16
Agatha's win probabilities
Outright call: George Russell, 19.2%
| Entrant | Win |
|---|---|
| George Russell Mercedes | 19.2% |
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli Mercedes | 16.2% |
| Lando Norris McLaren | 11.4% |
| Oscar Piastri McLaren | 10.2% |
| Lewis Hamilton Ferrari | 6.7% |
| Max Verstappen Red Bull | 6.2% |
| Charles Leclerc Ferrari | 6.1% |
| Liam Lawson Racing Bulls | 4.4% |
| Gabriel Bortoleto Audi | 3.2% |
| Isack Hadjar Red Bull | 2.7% |
George Russell heads the grid on Agatha's numbers at 19.2%, driver and car priced together.
Calibrated win probabilities from 77 seasons of championship results, driver and car priced together. 2026 reset the technical regulations, so the car hierarchy is still being learned and early numbers run less sharp than the historical backtest. Information only, never a staked play.