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In season

NASCAR Schedule

Every NASCAR race on the calendar, with Agatha's calibrated win probabilities over the field where she has a model, and a countdown to the next start.

The Field Card: Agatha's Read on the Race

Today - Hollywood Casino 400

Kansas Speedway - 3:00 PM ET - 36 cars entered

Intermediate ovalPlayoff Round 1

Denny Hamlin to win

24.6%
  1. Denny HamlinDenny Hamlin#1124.6%
  2. Christopher BellChristopher Bell#206.6%
  3. Ty GibbsTy Gibbs#545.4%
  4. Joey LoganoJoey Logano#224.3%
  5. Ryan PreeceRyan Preece#604.2%
  6. Tyler ReddickTyler Reddick#453.8%
  7. Chris BuescherChris Buescher#173.7%
  8. Daniel SuarezDaniel Suarez#73.3%
  9. Austin CindricAustin Cindric#23.0%
  10. Bubba WallaceBubba Wallace#232.9%
  11. Michael McDowellMichael McDowell#712.9%
  12. Kyle LarsonKyle Larson#52.6%
  13. Chase ElliottChase Elliott#92.6%
  14. Chase BriscoeChase Briscoe#192.4%
  15. Brad KeselowskiBrad Keselowski#62.3%
  16. William ByronWilliam Byron#242.1%
  17. Ryan BlaneyRyan Blaney#122.1%
  18. Austin DillonAustin Dillon#32.1%
  19. Todd GillilandTodd Gilliland#342.0%
  20. Carson HocevarCarson Hocevar#771.8%
  21. Erik JonesErik Jones#431.7%
  22. Ross ChastainRoss Chastain#11.7%
  23. John H. NemechekJohn H. Nemechek#421.5%
  24. Alex BowmanAlex Bowman#481.4%
  25. Shane Van GisbergenShane Van Gisbergen#971.4%
  26. Cole CusterCole Custer#411.1%
  27. Josh BerryJosh Berry#211.0%
  28. Ricky Stenhouse JrRicky Stenhouse Jr#470.9%
  29. Noah GragsonNoah Gragson#40.9%
  30. AJ AllmendingerAJ Allmendinger#160.8%
  31. Zane SmithZane Smith#380.7%
  32. Austin HillAustin Hill#330.6%
  33. Riley HerbstRiley Herbst#350.6%
  34. Ty DillonTy Dillon#100.5%
  35. Connor ZilischConnor Zilisch#880.4%
  36. Cody WareCody Ware#510.2%

Attrition context: 13% of cars have failed to finish at intermediate ovals in the current-car era (2022 on). The model prices pace; a wreck or a blown engine can beat any number below.

WHY?

Agatha prices every car she has data on, and Denny Hamlin comes out on top at 24.6%.

Calibrated win probabilities from 77 seasons of Cup results. In the current parity era the field runs closer than the historical backtest, so an unusually large favorite tends to run cooler than its number. Information only, never a staked play.

Sun 10/4 - South Point 400

5:30 PM ET - field TBA

Playoff Round 1

Entry list not posted yet; the field and win probabilities post once NASCAR publishes it, usually early race week.