Toledo vs Ball State Prediction
Saturday, Oct 3, 2026, 2:00 PM ET, Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, Week 5
Agatha Research Desk, Updated
AGATHA'S PICK
AWAYToledoAGATHA'S PICK
HOMEBall State
AWAYToledoPREDICTED SCOREPREDICTED SETSMATCHUPLIVEDELAYEDFINALPOSTPONEDLIVE
3924vs
Predicted --
HOMEBall State83%WIN CHANCELIVE READToledo to WinWON#138 SEALEDSEALED ODDS -Agatha's pick: Toledo to WinTHE VERDICT
Win chance at the seal 83%
Final score: Toledo 39, Ball State 24
- SEALED ODDS
- -1200BetMGM
- CLOSING ODDS
- Same as sealedat the start
- STAKE
- 1 unitflat, every pick
- RESULT
- WON +0.08uat the sealed price
- GRADED
- 5:30 PM ETreceipt #138
Game Center
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 6 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 39 |
| Ball State | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
Leaders
- Keldric Luster (BALL): 21/33, 224 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- TJ Horton (BALL): 9 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- Donovan Hamilton (BALL): 6 REC, 70 YDS
- John Alan Richter (TOL): 19/35, 201 YDS, 1 TD
- CJ Miller (TOL): 20 CAR, 196 YDS, 2 TD
- Adjatay Dabbs (TOL): 6 REC, 82 YDS
ToledoTale of the tape
Ball StateToledo vs Ball State recent form
Toledo 3-2 Toledo: last 5 games
- W41-16 Sep 26 San Diego State, 41-16
- W49-48 Sep 19 Temple, 49-48
- W63-10 Sep 12 Central Connecticut, 63-10
- L20-30 Sep 4 Michigan State, 20-30
- L22-27 Dec 23, 2025 Louisville, 22-27
Ball State 1-4 Ball State: last 5 games
- L13-26 Sep 26 Kent State, 13-26
- L15-51 Sep 19 Liberty, 15-51
- W41-17 Sep 12 Stony Brook, 41-17
- L3-56 Sep 5 Ohio State, 3-56
- L24-45 Nov 29, 2025 Miami (OH), 24-45
Points scored, last 5Toledo 195Ball State 96
Points allowed, last 5fewer is betterToledo 131Ball State 195
Toledo vs Ball State head-to-head
Since Oct 14, 2023: Toledo 2, Ball State 0
- Nov 22, 2025Toledo 38-9
- Oct 14, 2023Toledo 13-6
Toledo vs Ball State line movement
Market (latest pregame line)
Spread (Ball State)
+20.5
Total
53
Moneyline
- Toledo
- -1450
- Ball State
- +810
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (24 snapshots)
- Moneyline (Ball State) at FanDuel: opened +460, now +810
- Spread (Ball State) at FanDuel: opened +13.5, now +20.5
- Total at FanDuel: opened 51.5, now 52.5
Agatha's pick for Toledo vs Ball State
Toledo. Agatha gave Toledo an 83% chance to win at Scheumann Stadium, Muncie. It was Agatha's prediction for this game, sealed and graded like every pick.
TV: ESPN+