NCAAF Schedule

Buffalo has won four games in a row, including 34-31 at Miami (OH) on Nov 3. Buffalo is 6-3 this season and Ball State is 3-6. The defense has been the separator, allowing 26.0 points a game to Ball State's 34.8, and Buffalo took the last meeting 51-48 at home on Nov 12, 2024. Agatha has Buffalo winning 30-20, about a 7-in-10 chance. The risk is Ball State won 32-31 at Bowling Green on Oct 17 and beat Sacramento State 34-17 at home on Oct 24.

Central Michigan allows 23.8 points a game, Sacramento State 29.3, and that defense decides this one. Central Michigan also scored more points per game this season, 19.8 to 17.0, and beat Eastern Michigan 35-7 at a neutral site on Nov 4. Sacramento State went 1-4 over the last 5 games. Agatha has Central Michigan winning 39-12, about a 9-in-10 chance. The risk is Sacramento State beat Kent State 31-10 at home on Oct 30.

Toledo won the last meeting with Massachusetts 38-23 at home on Sep 7, 2024, and has won three games in a row. Toledo scores 35.4 points a game this season to Massachusetts 27.0, and Toledo is 7-2 while Massachusetts is 5-4. Toledo also won 20-17 at Sacramento State on Nov 4. Agatha predicts a 38-14 Toledo win, about a 19-in-20 chance. The risk is that Toledo lost 23-8 to Buffalo at home on Oct 10.

Memphis has won both meetings since Oct 12, 2024, the latest 34-31 at home on Oct 25, 2025. Memphis scores 37.6 points a game this season, and South Florida scores 25.9. Memphis also beat Army 49-22 at home on Oct 31 and has won two games in a row. Agatha has Memphis winning 30-27, about a 2-in-3 chance. The risk is South Florida allows fewer points a game, 15.1 to 23.6, and plays at Raymond James Stadium, its home ground.

The head-to-head decides it: Louisiana has won all three meetings since Nov 25, 2023, the latest 30-27 at home on Nov 29, 2025. Louisiana also scores 29.9 points a game and allows 21.8 this season, while UL Monroe scores 20.1 and allows 34.8. Louisiana beat South Alabama 28-26 at home on Nov 7. Agatha has Louisiana winning 33-15, about a 7-in-8 chance. The risk is the game is at Malone Stadium, UL Monroe's home ground, and UL Monroe won 19-17 at Arkansas State on Nov 7.

Pittsburgh allows 19.8 points a game, Florida State 28.3. Pittsburgh won the last meeting 34-31 on the road on Oct 11, 2025, and beat Georgia Tech 34-11 at home on Oct 31. Pittsburgh is 6-3 this season while Florida State is 4-5. Agatha predicts a 31-24 Pittsburgh win, about a 7-in-10 chance. The risk is Florida State won 31-24 at Boston College on Nov 7, and Pittsburgh went 2-3 over the last 5 games.

UCLA's defense carries this game: it allows 14.1 points a game, and Illinois allows 23.0. UCLA is 9-0 this season and has won nine games in a row, and it won 34-20 at Minnesota on Nov 7. On offense UCLA scores 33.6 points a game to Illinois's 28.4. Agatha's prediction is a 29-20 UCLA win, about a 3-in-4 chance. The risk is Illinois has won four games in a row, including a 24-13 home win over Nebraska on Nov 6.

Houston won the last meeting 36-20 at home on Sep 12, 2025, and the season points say the same. Houston scores 35.4 points a game and allows 21.3 this season, while Colorado scores 19.8 and allows 28.3. Houston also beat Cincinnati 31-24 at home on Nov 7. Agatha predicts a 36-15 Houston win, about a 9-in-10 chance. The risk is the setting, with the game at Folsom Field in Boulder on Colorado's home ground.

Miami won the last meeting 53-31 at home on Nov 2, 2024. Miami scored more points per game than Duke this season, 45.0 to 33.0. Miami is 8-1 this season. Miami beat Pittsburgh 52-23 at home on Oct 24. Agatha's prediction is a 33-20 Miami win, about a 4-in-5 chance. The risk is Duke allows only 13.0 points a game, fewer than Miami's 19.2, and has won three games in a row.

Ohio State won the last meeting 31-7 at a neutral site on Nov 16, 2024, and the game is at Ohio Stadium, Ohio State's home ground. Ohio State scores 35.7 points a game and allows 18.3 this season. Northwestern has lost two games in a row, including 24-10 to Iowa at home on Nov 7. Agatha has Ohio State winning 30-19, about a 3-in-4 chance. The risk is Ohio State has lost two games in a row, including 41-28 to Oregon at home on Nov 7.

Auburn allowed fewer points a game this season than Mississippi State, 26.3 to 27.8, and now faces a team that has lost five games in a row. Auburn beat Arkansas 26-23 at home on Nov 7. Mississippi State fell 25-23 to Vanderbilt at home on Nov 7. Agatha has Auburn winning 26-24, a little better than a coin flip. The risk is the game is at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi State's home ground.

SMU plays at home at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, and the offense has been rolling. SMU scores 37.0 points a game this season and beat Virginia Tech 51-28 at home on Nov 6. Before that came a 59-20 home win over California on Oct 24. SMU is 7-2 this season. Agatha predicts a 29-25 SMU win, a little better than a coin flip. The risk is Wake Forest won the last meeting 13-12 at home on Oct 25, 2025, and has won six games in a row.

Cincinnati has lost two games in a row, 31-24 at Houston on Nov 7 and 49-25 to Utah at home on Oct 31. Iowa State beat Oklahoma State 51-49 at home on Oct 31. The game is at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa State's home ground. Agatha's prediction is a 27-25 Iowa State win, slightly better than even. The risk is Cincinnati won the latest meeting between the two, 38-30 at home on Oct 4, 2025.

The game is at Carter-Finley Stadium, NC State's home ground, and NC State beat California 31-10 at home on Oct 31. Syracuse comes in off an 18-13 home loss to Clemson on Nov 7 and lost 28-25 at Virginia on Oct 10. Agatha has NC State winning 31-21, about a 7-in-10 chance. The risk is Syracuse won their last meeting, 24-17 on the road on Oct 12, 2024.

Wisconsin's defense decides this game, allowing 16.3 points a game to Maryland's 31.3. Wisconsin beat Rutgers 31-10 at home on Nov 7. Maryland lost 20-17 to Illinois at home on Oct 31. Wisconsin is 6-3 this season, Maryland 3-6. Agatha predicts a 29-21 Wisconsin win, about a 3-in-4 chance. The risk is Maryland won their last meeting, 27-10 on the road on Sep 20, 2025.

James Madison scored more points per game than UConn this season, 40.6 to 32.9, and allowed fewer, 19.3 to 26.7. James Madison is 8-2 this season and won the last meeting 44-6 at home on Nov 11, 2023. James Madison also won 54-23 at Southern Miss on Nov 5. Agatha's prediction is a 36-21 James Madison win, about a 4-in-5 chance. The risk is James Madison lost 24-21 to Troy at home on Oct 29.

Clemson's defense decides this game, allowing 20.7 points a game while Georgia Tech gives up 32.2. Clemson won 18-13 at Syracuse on Nov 7 and has won two games in a row. Georgia Tech has lost four games in a row and is 2-7 this season, while Clemson is 6-3. Agatha's prediction is a 35-17 Clemson win, about a 9-in-10 chance. The risk is Georgia Tech won the latest meeting, 24-21 at home on Sep 13, 2025.

Nebraska allows 16.6 points a game and scores 30.2 this season, while Rutgers allows 32.4. Nebraska won the last meeting 14-7 at home on Oct 5, 2024, and Rutgers has lost three games in a row. Rutgers lost 31-10 at Wisconsin on Nov 7, and Nebraska beat Maryland 48-23 at home on Oct 3. Agatha has Nebraska winning 32-22, about a 3-in-4 chance. The risk is Nebraska has lost four games in a row, and this game is at SHI Stadium, Rutgers' home ground.

Alabama allows 20.3 points a game while Vanderbilt allows 29.4, and Alabama scores 37.4 a game. Alabama won 31-13 at LSU on Nov 7 and has won two games in a row, and it took the latest meeting 30-14 at home on Oct 4, 2025. Agatha's prediction is a 35-18 Alabama win, about a 7-in-8 chance. The risk is Vanderbilt won 25-23 at Mississippi State on Nov 7, and the game is at FirstBank Stadium, Vanderbilt's home ground.

East Carolina's defense decides this one, allowing 23.3 points a game to Charlotte's 38.3. East Carolina is 5-4 this season and Charlotte is 1-8. East Carolina has won two games in a row, beating South Florida 20-17 at home on Nov 6. In the latest meeting East Carolina won 48-22 at home on Nov 8, 2025. Agatha has East Carolina winning 33-17, about a 5-in-6 chance. The risk is Charlotte's home ground, Jerry Richardson Stadium, and Charlotte's 38-31 win at Temple on Oct 17.

UAB's defense has been the sturdier side, allowing 23.8 points a game to Temple's 28.3. UAB won the last meeting 34-24 at home on Nov 18, 2023, and beat Charlotte 23-12 at home on Nov 7. Temple has lost four games in a row. Agatha has UAB winning 34-24, about a 7-in-10 chance. The risk is Temple's home ground at Lincoln Financial Field and a Temple offense that scores 24.9 points a game to UAB's 21.8.

Arkansas State scores 27.4 points a game this season, more than Coastal Carolina's 24.7, and is 4-5 while Coastal Carolina is 3-6. The 38-32 home win over Georgia State on Oct 24 stands out, and Coastal Carolina lost 21-8 at home to Old Dominion on Nov 7. Agatha's prediction is a 27-21 Arkansas State win, a little better than a coin flip. The risk is Coastal Carolina allows fewer points than Arkansas State, 24.7 to 26.3, and won 31-20 at Georgia State on Oct 31.

TCU's defense allows 15.8 points a game, and Kansas State allows 26.8. Kansas State has lost three games in a row, including 66-28 to Oklahoma State at home on Nov 7. TCU beat Kansas 22-16 at home on Oct 31. TCU also won 17-6 at Baylor on Oct 17. The game is at Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TCU's home ground. Agatha's prediction is a 33-23 TCU win, about a 4-in-5 chance. The risk is that Kansas State won the last meeting 41-28 at home on Oct 11, 2025.

The books see this game very differently than the model does, so Agatha makes no call here.

Sam Houston has lost six games in a row, and Kennesaw State has won two games in a row. Kennesaw State beat Delaware 42-40 at home on Nov 7. Kennesaw State won 44-28 at Middle Tennessee on Oct 28. Kennesaw State scored more points per game than Sam Houston this season, 25.1 to 17.6. Agatha's prediction is a 32-20 Kennesaw State win, about a 3-in-4 chance. The risk is Sam Houston won their last meeting, 23-17 on the road on Nov 16, 2024.

Tennessee's defense decides this game, allowing 15.1 points a game this season. Tennessee also scores more than Texas A&M, 32.4 points a game to 26.1, and it beat Kentucky 34-6 at home on Nov 7. Texas A&M has lost two games in a row, including a 17-9 loss at South Carolina on Nov 7. Agatha has Tennessee winning 31-20, about a 7-in-10 chance. The risk is that the game is at Kyle Field, Texas A&M's home ground.

Missouri State won the last meeting between the two, 24-17 on the road on Oct 22, 2025. Missouri State scores 23.9 points a game to New Mexico State's 20.7, and New Mexico State has lost two games in a row, falling 30-14 to Liberty at home on Nov 7. The game is at Robert W. Plaster Stadium, Missouri State's home ground. Agatha has Missouri State winning 29-23, about a 2-in-3 chance. The risk is New Mexico State allows 25.8 points a game and Missouri State lost 23-20 at Florida International on Nov 7.

Delaware won the last meeting with Florida International 38-16 on the road on Sep 20, 2025, and scores 30.3 points a game to Florida International's 19.3. Delaware won 35-21 at Western Kentucky on Oct 27. Florida International lost 49-10 at Liberty on Oct 31. Agatha predicts a 28-24 Delaware win, about a 2-in-3 chance. The risk is Delaware lost 42-40 at Kennesaw State on Nov 7 and allows 29.1 points a game.

Georgia's defense decides this one: it allows 14.0 points a game this season, and Missouri gives up 20.1. Georgia won 42-7 at Ole Miss on Nov 7 and beat Florida 27-8 at a neutral site on Oct 31. Georgia is 8-1 this season while Missouri is 6-3, and the game is at Sanford Stadium, Georgia's home ground. Agatha predicts a 33-16 Georgia win, about a 7-in-8 chance. The risk is Georgia lost 27-24 to Auburn at home on Oct 17, and Missouri beat Florida 45-17 at home on Oct 3.

Indiana allowed fewer points per game than USC this season, 12.4 to 24.2. Indiana is 8-1 this season and has won two games in a row. Indiana beat Minnesota 23-16 at home on Oct 31. Indiana won 13-6 at Michigan on Oct 24. The game is at Memorial Stadium, Indiana's home ground. Agatha predicts a 31-19 Indiana win, about a 3-in-4 chance. The risk is Grant Wilson starting for Indiana in place of Josh Hoover, and USC beat Ohio State 30-18 at home on Oct 31.

BYU won the last meeting with Baylor 34-28 on the road on Sep 28, 2024. The game is at LaVell Edwards Stadium, BYU's home ground. BYU is 7-2 this season and beat Notre Dame 28-24 at home on Oct 17. Baylor is 6-3. Agatha's prediction is a 31-24 BYU win, about a 3-in-4 chance. The risk is Baylor has won two games in a row and beat Iowa State 42-31 at home on Nov 7.

The last meeting is the clearest guide: Oregon won it 38-17 on the road on Nov 2, 2024. Oregon has won two games in a row, including 41-28 at Ohio State on Nov 7, and scores more points per game than Michigan this season, 34.1 to 19.6. The game is at Autzen Stadium, Oregon's home ground. Agatha has Oregon winning 34-16, about a 7-in-8 chance. The risk is Michigan's defense, which allowed fewer points per game than Oregon this season, 16.2 to 22.1.

Arizona State won the last meeting with UCF 35-31 at home on Nov 9, 2024, and comes in off a 20-10 home win over Colorado on Nov 7. Arizona State also beat Kansas State 28-17 at home on Oct 24. UCF went 2-3 over the last 5 games and lost 41-9 to Baylor at home on Oct 30. Agatha's prediction is a 28-22 Arizona State win, a little better than a coin flip. The risk is UCF scores more points a game, 30.1 to 28.4, and allows fewer, 26.0 to 27.3, at its home ground in Orlando.

Virginia won the last meeting 31-21 on the road on Nov 1, 2025. Virginia allows 23.1 points a game, California 31.6. California has lost three games in a row, including a 59-20 loss at SMU on Oct 24. Virginia is 4-5 this season and California is 3-6. Agatha predicts a 29-20 Virginia win, about a 4-in-5 chance. The risk is Virginia's own three-game losing streak, which includes a 51-7 loss at Wake Forest on Oct 31.

Tulsa's defense decides this game. Tulsa allows 22.8 points a game this season, fewer than Florida Atlantic's 35.0, and Tulsa won 60-10 at Tulane on Nov 7. Tulsa also won 38-17 at Rice on Oct 17, and the game is on Tulsa's home ground. Agatha's prediction is a 33-30 Tulsa win, a little better than a coin flip. The risk is Florida Atlantic won the latest meeting, 40-21 at home on Nov 8, 2025.

Northern Illinois is 0-9 this season and has lost nine games in a row. Northern Illinois allows 36.8 points a game while Nevada allows 23.6. Nevada beat San Jose State 28-13 at home on Oct 24, and Northern Illinois lost 30-19 at San Jose State on Nov 7. Agatha has Nevada winning 30-19, about a 7-in-10 chance. The risk is Nevada has lost two games in a row, and the game is at Huskie Stadium, Northern Illinois' home ground.

Georgia Southern has won both meetings since Sep 28, 2024, the latest 41-24 at home on Oct 18, 2025. The defense allows 19.7 points a game, and Georgia State allows 26.2. The team has won three games in a row, including a 49-13 home win over Marshall on Nov 7. Agatha predicts a 31-26 Georgia Southern win, about a 3-in-4 chance. The risk is Georgia State scores 34.4 points a game, more than Georgia Southern's 26.6.

Jacksonville State won the latest meeting with Western Kentucky, 37-34 at home on Nov 29, 2025, and has won six games in a row. The defense allows 19.2 points a game while Western Kentucky allows 33.3, and Jacksonville State scores 29.1 to Western Kentucky's 23.6. On Nov 7 it beat Sam Houston 47-14 at home. Agatha's prediction is a 33-18 Jacksonville State win, about a 5-in-6 chance. The risk is Western Kentucky beat Missouri State 34-13 at home on Oct 8.

Texas State scores 38.6 points a game, and the offense carries the day. Texas State won 42-21 at Oregon State on Nov 7 and beat Colorado State 66-27 at home on Oct 15. The game is at UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, Texas State's home ground. Agatha predicts a 34-26 Texas State win, about a 2-in-3 chance. The risk is Fresno State allows fewer points per game than Texas State, 20.6 to 30.8, so points will not come easily.

Ole Miss has the head to head, winning the latest meeting 34-26 on the road on Oct 25, 2025. Ole Miss scores 33.8 points a game this season to Oklahoma's 22.1, and comes in 6-3 against 5-4, with a 45-15 win over Auburn at home on Oct 31. Agatha's prediction is a 27-21 Ole Miss win, about a 6-in-10 chance. The risk is Oklahoma's defense, which allows fewer points a game than Ole Miss this season, 19.2 to 26.0.

Washington scores 26.3 points a game and allows 21.9. Michigan State scores 19.3 and allows 23.6. Washington is 5-4 and won 17-10 at Nebraska on Oct 31 and 38-26 at Purdue on Oct 16. Michigan State is 3-6 and lost 28-10 at UCLA on Oct 24 and 31-3 at Wisconsin on Oct 3. Agatha predicts a 31-20 Washington win, about a 3-in-4 chance. The risk is Michigan State won 15-6 at Michigan on Nov 7, so it arrives off a win.

Louisiana Tech has won six games in a row and its defense allows 20.4 points a game while Southern Miss allows 33.6. Louisiana Tech also won 41-17 at Troy on Nov 7 and beat Southern Miss 30-20 at home on Sep 20, 2025. Agatha's prediction is a 39-16 Louisiana Tech win, about a 19-in-20 chance. The risk is Southern Miss beat Louisiana 35-31 at home on Oct 24.

Scoring is where West Virginia separates itself, at 37.2 points a game. Kansas is 3-6 this season and has lost two games in a row, including 33-32 to UCF at home on Nov 7. West Virginia won 24-20 at TCU on Oct 24, and the game is at Milan Puskar Stadium. Agatha predicts a 34-23 West Virginia win, about a 4-in-5 chance. The risk is Kansas won the latest meeting, 41-10 at home on Sep 20, 2025.

App State has lost two games in a row. The recent losses were ugly: a 39-23 loss to Georgia State at home on Nov 7 and a 19-3 loss at Georgia Southern on Oct 31. Marshall won 36-23 at Old Dominion on Oct 31, and the game is at Joan C. Edwards Stadium, Huntington, Marshall's home ground. Agatha predicts a 33-23 Marshall win, about a 7-in-10 chance. The risk is the latest meeting, when App State won 26-24 at home on Nov 22, 2025.

Boise State has won eight games in a row, and the last meeting with Oregon State went the same way, 34-18 at home on Nov 29, 2024. Boise State is 8-1 this season while Oregon State is 5-4, and Boise State allowed fewer points per game than Oregon State this season, 25.2 to 26.9. The game is at Albertsons Stadium, Boise State's home ground. Agatha's prediction is a 38-19 Boise State win, about a 9-in-10 chance. The risk is an Oregon State offense that scored 48 points in a 48-30 home win over Washington State on Oct 17.

The latest meeting decides it: Kentucky won 38-7 at home on Nov 8, 2025. Kentucky is 7-2 this season while Florida is 5-4, and Florida has lost two games in a row, including 23-7 to Oklahoma at home on Nov 7. The game is at Kroger Field, Lexington, Kentucky's home ground. Agatha predicts a 33-18 Kentucky win, about a 7-in-8 chance. The risk is Kentucky lost 34-6 at Tennessee on Nov 7, and Florida scored more points per game this season, 32.4 to 29.9.

Louisville scores 40.8 points a game, and that offense carries the day. The team won 44-17 at Georgia Tech on Nov 7 and has won four games in a row. It beat Stanford 52-24 at home on Oct 31 and is 6-3 this season while North Carolina is 5-4. Agatha's prediction is a 31-20 Louisville win, about a 3-in-4 chance. The risk is North Carolina allowing fewer points per game than Louisville this season, 22.8 to 25.9.

Penn State's defense sets the tone, allowing 19.3 points a game while Minnesota allows 22.0. Penn State has won two games in a row, including 28-25 at Washington on Nov 7. Penn State also scores 28.9 points a game, more than Minnesota manages. Penn State took the last meeting 26-25 on the road on Nov 23, 2024. Agatha predicts a 29-20 Penn State win, about a 3-in-4 chance. The risk is Penn State lost 31-23 to USC at home on Oct 10 and went 2-3 over the last 5 games.

South Alabama scored more points per game than Troy this season, 32.4 to 22.3. South Alabama won 56-49 at Arkansas State on Oct 8 and beat UL Monroe 52-35 at home on Oct 3. Troy lost 41-17 to Louisiana Tech at home on Nov 7. The game is at Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, South Alabama's home ground. Agatha predicts a 30-24 South Alabama win, close to a 6-in-10 chance. The risk is Troy won the latest meeting, 31-24 at home on Oct 4, 2025.

Air Force won the latest meeting with San Jose State 26-16 on the road on Nov 8, 2025. Air Force is 7-2 this season, and San Jose State is 5-5. Air Force scores 28.7 points a game and allows 21.4 this season. Agatha predicts a 37-20 Air Force win, about a 7-in-8 chance. The risk is San Jose State beat Northern Illinois 30-19 at home on Nov 7.

Texas has won three games in a row, and the defense carries it. Texas allowed fewer points per game than LSU this season, 17.4 to 17.7. Texas beat Mississippi State 31-3 at home on Oct 31. Texas won 34-20 at Missouri on Nov 7. Agatha predicts a 28-20 Texas win, close to a 6-in-10 chance. The risk is LSU scores 37.1 points a game, more than Texas this season, and the game is at Tiger Stadium, LSU's home ground.

Utah is 9-0 this season and has won nine games in a row, and the defense carries it. Utah scores 37.7 points a game and allows 16.3 this season. Utah beat BYU 28-20 at home on Nov 7. Utah won 49-25 at Cincinnati on Oct 31. Agatha predicts a 31-23 Utah win, about a 2-in-3 chance. The risk is Arizona won the latest meeting 23-10 on the road on Sep 28, 2024.

Iowa allowed fewer points per game than Purdue this season, 12.2 to 32.3, and Purdue has lost three games in a row. Iowa won 24-10 at Northwestern on Nov 7 and beat Wisconsin 30-0 at home on Oct 31. Iowa is 7-2 this season, and Purdue is 3-6. Agatha's prediction is a 38-11 Iowa win, about a 19-in-20 chance. The risk is Purdue scores 29.4 points a game, more than Iowa's 27.8, and Iowa lost 13-10 at Minnesota on Oct 24.

The defense decides it: Virginia Tech allows 23.9 points a game and Stanford allows 37.3. Virginia Tech won the last meeting 31-7 on the road on Oct 5, 2024. Virginia Tech won 20-16 at Clemson on Oct 24. Virginia Tech scores 34.2 points a game to Stanford's 20.3. Agatha predicts a 31-22 Virginia Tech win, about a 3-in-4 chance. The risk is Virginia Tech lost 51-28 at SMU on Nov 6 and went 2-3 over the last 5 games.

New Mexico won the last meeting 40-35 on the road on Nov 1, 2025, and has won six games in a row. The defense allows 10.9 points a game this season. New Mexico also won 31-3 at Nevada on Nov 6, so the form is there on both sides of the ball. Agatha predicts a 35-22 New Mexico win, about a 4-in-5 chance. The risk is UNLV beat California 39-31 at home on Oct 3 and can put up points.

South Carolina has won four games in a row, and the run includes a 17-9 home win over Texas A&M on Nov 7. The season numbers point the same way. South Carolina scores 34.7 points a game to Arkansas 20.0, and allows 23.4 to Arkansas 27.4. Agatha's prediction is a 33-19 South Carolina win, about a 4-in-5 chance. The risk is that the game is at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Arkansas' home ground.

UTSA has allowed fewer points a game than North Texas this season, 29.8 to 30.9. UTSA won 42-19 at Tulane on Oct 24 and beat Navy 38-34 at home on Oct 17. The game is at the Alamodome in San Antonio, UTSA's home ground, and UTSA has had eight days off since Nov 5. Agatha's prediction is a 35-32 UTSA win, a little better than a coin flip. The risk is North Texas won the latest meeting 55-17 at home on Oct 18, 2025, and has won six games in a row.

The books see this game very differently than the model does, so Agatha makes no call here.

Utah State won the last meeting 41-20 at home on Nov 23, 2024, and the defense has held up: Utah State allowed fewer points a game than San Diego State this season, 20.6 to 34.3. Utah State beat Fresno State 17-10 at home on Nov 7 and has won two games in a row. Agatha has Utah State winning 28-26, a little better than a coin flip. The risk is San Diego State scores 26.4 points a game to Utah State's 16.9 and plays at home at Snapdragon Stadium.

The deciding fact is UTEP's seven-game losing streak. Wyoming has won four in a row, the latest a 41-35 win at UNLV on Nov 7. Wyoming scores 21.9 points a game and allows 21.7 this season, and UTEP scores 14.1 and allows 34.3. Agatha's prediction is a 34-14 Wyoming win, about a 9-in-10 chance. The risk is that Wyoming lost 28-0 at North Dakota State on Oct 3, and this game is at UTEP's home ground.

Washington State won the last meeting between the teams, 20-3 on the road on Sep 27, 2025. Washington State allowed fewer points a game than Colorado State this season, 27.4 to 44.8, and Colorado State has lost two games in a row, including 64-38 to Boise State at home on Nov 7. Washington State has had 13 days off since Oct 31 and plays at Martin Stadium in Pullman. Agatha predicts a 30-27 Washington State win, a little better than a coin flip. The risk is Washington State has lost six games in a row while Colorado State scores 35.8 points a game.

North Dakota State allows 11.9 points a game this season, and that defense decides the game. North Dakota State is 7-2 while Hawai'i is 3-6. North Dakota State beat UTEP 31-7 at home on Oct 31. North Dakota State beat Wyoming 28-0 at home on Oct 3. Agatha has North Dakota State winning 29-22, about a 4-in-5 chance. The risk is Hawai'i has won two games in a row, and the game is at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Hawai'i's home ground.

The defense decides it: Western Michigan allows 18.7 points a game this season and scores 27.8. Western Michigan won 42-14 at Akron on Nov 10. Western Michigan beat Eastern Michigan 31-21 on the road on Nov 25, 2025. Eastern Michigan has lost three games in a row. Agatha's prediction is a 33-13 Western Michigan win, about a 9-in-10 chance. The risk is Western Michigan's 45-38 loss at Toledo on Oct 24.

Ohio's defense decides this one. Ohio allows 22.9 points a game this season and Ball State allows 34.8. Ohio is 7-3, and Ball State is 3-6. Ohio scores 28.2 a game and went 4-1 over the last 5 games. Ball State lost 45-14 at Northwestern on Oct 10. Agatha's prediction is a 35-18 Ohio win, about a 7-in-8 chance. The risk is Ball State won the latest meeting, 20-14 at home on Oct 4, 2025.

Miami (OH) won their last meeting, 34-7 at home on Nov 13, 2024. Miami (OH) beat Ohio 34-17 at home on Nov 10. Miami (OH) scored more points per game than Kent State this season, 28.1 to 15.7. Agatha predicts a 30-18 Miami (OH) win, about a 3-in-4 chance. The risk: Miami (OH) lost 34-31 to Buffalo at home on Nov 3.

Akron has lost eight games in a row, and the numbers behind that run are grim. Akron is 1-9 this season while Massachusetts is 5-4. Massachusetts scores 27.0 points a game and allows 22.1 this season. Akron scores 18.6 points a game and allows 33.2 this season. Massachusetts also beat Ball State 31-30 at home on Nov 4. Agatha's prediction is a 28-21 Massachusetts win, about a 3-in-4 chance. The risk is Akron won their last meeting, 44-10 at home on Nov 4, 2025.

Buffalo has won four games in a row, including 34-31 at Miami (OH) on Nov 3 and 31-24 over Bowling Green at home on Oct 24. Buffalo is 6-3 this season while Central Michigan is 4-5, and Buffalo scores 23.9 points a game to Central Michigan's 19.8. The game is at Broadview Stadium, Buffalo's home ground. Agatha's prediction is a 27-20 Buffalo win, about a 7-in-10 chance. The risk is Central Michigan won their last meeting, 38-19 at home on Nov 12, 2025.

Rice has lost eight games in a row. Temple scores 24.9 points a game and allows 28.3 this season, while Rice scores 21.2 and allows 34.0. Temple is 2-7 this season, Rice is 1-8, and Temple won 17-13 at South Florida on Oct 3. Agatha's prediction is a 32-26 Temple win, close to a 6-in-10 chance. The risk is Temple has lost four games in a row, including 42-35 at Navy on Nov 7.