Patriots vs Bills Prediction
Sunday, Oct 4, 2026, 1:00 PM ET, Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, Week 4
Agatha Research Desk, Updated
AGATHA'S PICK
AWAYNew EnglandPatriotsAGATHA'S PICK
HOMEBuffaloBills
AWAYNew EnglandPatriotsPREDICTED SCOREPREDICTED SETSMATCHUPLIVEDELAYEDFINALPOSTPONEDLIVE
2926vs
Predicted --
HOMEBuffaloBills70%WIN CHANCELIVE READBills to WinLOST#270 SEALEDSEALED ODDS -Agatha's pick: Bills to WinTHE VERDICT
Win chance at the seal 70%
Final score: Patriots 29, Bills 26
- SEALED ODDS
- -300Betway
- CLOSING ODDS
- Same as sealedat the start
- STAKE
- 1 unitflat, every pick
- RESULT
- LOST -1.00uat the sealed price
- GRADED
- 4:16 PM ETreceipt #270
Game Center
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 29 |
| BUF | 0 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 26 |
Play-by-play
- [4- 1:00] Timeout #1 by BUF at 01:00.
Leaders
- Josh Allen (BUF): 23/33, 253 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- James Cook III (BUF): 12 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- Keon Coleman (BUF): 6 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- Drake Maye (NE): 22/37, 269 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Drake Maye (NE): 8 CAR, 54 YDS
- Hunter Henry (NE): 5 REC, 62 YDS
Game-day injuries
- Dee Alford (BUF) - Questionable
- Ed Oliver (BUF) - Questionable
- Te'Cory Couch (BUF) - Questionable
- DJ Moore (BUF) - Doubtful
- T.J. Sanders (BUF) - Out
- Eli Raridon (NE) - Questionable
- Charles Woods (NE) - Questionable
- Mack Hollins (NE) - Questionable
- Behren Morton (NE) - Out
- Channing Canada (NE) - Out
NETale of the tape
BUFPatriots vs Bills recent form
NE 2-3 Patriots: last 5 games
- L6-35JAX Sep 27 Jacksonville Jaguars, 6-35
- W20-3PIT Sep 20 Pittsburgh Steelers, 20-3
- L10-13SEA Sep 9 Seattle Seahawks, 10-13
- L13-29SEA Feb 8 Seattle Seahawks, 13-29
- W10-7DEN Jan 25 Denver Broncos, 10-7
BUF 4-1 Bills: last 5 games
- W24-16LAC Sep 27 Los Angeles Chargers, 24-16
- W41-31DET Sep 17 Detroit Lions, 41-31
- W36-31HOU Sep 13 Houston Texans, 36-31
- L30-33DEN Jan 17 Denver Broncos, 30-33
- W27-24JAX Jan 11 Jacksonville Jaguars, 27-24
Points scored, last 5NE 59BUF 158
Points allowed, last 5fewer is betterNE 87BUF 135
Patriots vs Bills head-to-head
Since Oct 22, 2023: Patriots 3, Bills 3
- Dec 14, 2025Bills 35-31
- Oct 5, 2025Patriots 23-20
- Jan 5, 2025Patriots 23-16
- Dec 22, 2024Bills 24-21
- Dec 31, 2023Bills 27-21
- Oct 22, 2023Patriots 29-25
Patriots vs Bills line movement
Market (latest pregame line)
Spread (BUF)
-7
Total
49
Moneyline
- NE
- +275
- BUF
- -350
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (10 snapshots)
- Moneyline (BUF) at FanDuel: opened -260, now -350
- Spread (BUF) at FanDuel: opened -5.5, now -6.5
- Total at FanDuel: opened 50.5, now 49.5
Agatha's pick for Patriots vs Bills
The Bills. Agatha gave Buffalo a 70% chance to win at Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park. It was Agatha's prediction for this game, sealed and graded like every pick.
TV: CBS