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Capitals vs Lightning Prediction

Saturday, Oct 3, 2026, 7:00 PM ET, Benchmark International Arena, Tampa

Agatha Research Desk, Updated

Washington CapitalsAWAYWashingtonCapitals

FINAL

0130

AGATHA'S PICKTampa Bay LightningHOMETampa BayLightning
56%WIN CHANCELightning to WinWON#178 SEALED

Win chance at the seal 56%

Agatha's pick: Lightning to WinTHE VERDICT

Final score: Lightning 3, Capitals 1

SEALED ODDS
-188Betano
CLOSING ODDS
-200Betano, at the start
STAKE
1 unitflat, every pick
RESULT
WON +0.53uat the sealed price
GRADED
9:46 PM ETreceipt #178

Game Center

Team123T
WSH0101
TBL2013

Play-by-play

  • [3- 20:00] Game End
  • [3- 20:00] End of 3rd Period
  • [3- 19:59] Dylan Strome shot blocked by Victor Hedman
  • [3- 19:53] Ryan Leonard saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  • [3- 19:46] Alex Ovechkin Missed Shot Wide Right
  • [3- 19:44] Jordan Kyrou shot blocked by Victor Hedman
  • [3- 19:23] Brandon Hagel Backhand Wide Right
  • [3- 19:16] Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
  • [3- 19:14] Dylan Strome Snap Shot Hit Right Post
  • [3- 19:12] Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Erik Cernak
  • [3- 19:01] Dylan Strome Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  • [3- 18:56] Dylan Strome Tip-In Wide Left

Leaders

  • Jake Guentzel (TB): 1
  • Brandon Hagel (TB): 2
  • Jake Guentzel (TB): 2
  • Justin Sourdif (WSH): 1
  • Boone Jenner (WSH): 1
  • Justin Sourdif (WSH): 1

Game-day injuries

  • Yanni Gourde (TB) - Injured Reserve
  • Dominic James (TB) - Injured Reserve
  • Matt Roy (WSH) - Day-To-Day
  • Patrick Thomas (WSH) - Injured Reserve
  • Rasmus Sandin (WSH) - Injured Reserve
WSH

Tale of the tape

TBL

Capitals vs Lightning recent form

WSH 5-0 Capitals: last 5 games

  1. W5-2CAR Oct 2 Carolina Hurricanes, 5-2
  2. W2-1CBJ Apr 14 Columbus Blue Jackets, 2-1
  3. W3-0PIT Apr 12 Pittsburgh Penguins, 3-0
  4. W6-3PIT Apr 11 Pittsburgh Penguins, 6-3
  5. W4-0TOR Apr 8 Toronto Maple Leafs, 4-0

TBL 2-3 Lightning: last 5 games

  1. L1-5NYR Oct 1 New York Rangers, 1-5
  2. L1-2MTL May 3 Montreal Canadiens, 1-2
  3. W1-0MTL May 1 Montreal Canadiens, 1-0
  4. L2-3MTL Apr 29 Montreal Canadiens, 2-3
  5. W3-2MTL Apr 26 Montreal Canadiens, 3-2
Goals scored, last 5WSH 20TBL 8
Goals allowed, last 5fewer is betterWSH 6TBL 12

Capitals vs Lightning head-to-head

Since Feb 22, 2024: Capitals 4, Lightning 4

  1. Nov 22, 2025Lightning 5-3
  2. Nov 8, 2025Lightning 3-2
  3. Oct 14, 2025Capitals 3-2
  4. Mar 1, 2025Lightning 3-1
  5. Nov 27, 2024Capitals 5-4
  6. Oct 26, 2024Lightning 3-0
  7. Apr 13, 2024Capitals 4-2
  8. Feb 22, 2024Capitals 5-3

Capitals vs Lightning line movement

MONEYLINE Lightning to win at Betano

Market (latest pregame line)

Spread (TBL)

-1.5

Total

6.5

Moneyline

WSH
+170
TBL
-210

Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (13 snapshots)

  • Moneyline (TBL) at FanDuel: opened -172, now -205
  • Spread (TBL) at FanDuel: opened -1.5, now -1.5
  • Total at FanDuel: opened 6.5, now 6.5

Agatha's pick for Capitals vs Lightning

The Lightning. Agatha gave Tampa Bay a 56% chance to win at Benchmark International Arena, Tampa. It was one of Agatha's Best NHL Bets for Oct 3.

TV: ESPN+

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