Lightning vs Rangers Prediction
Thursday, Oct 1, 2026, 7:00 PM ET, Madison Square Garden, New York
Agatha Research Desk, Updated
AGATHA'S PICK
AWAYTampa BayLightningAGATHA'S PICK
HOMENew YorkRangers
AWAYTampa BayLightningPREDICTED SCOREPREDICTED SETSMATCHUPLIVEDELAYEDFINALPOSTPONEDLIVE
0150vs
Predicted --
HOMENew YorkRangers56%WIN CHANCELIVE READLightning to WinLOST#15 SEALEDSEALED ODDS -Agatha's pick: Lightning to WinTHE VERDICT
Win chance at the seal 56%
Final score: Rangers 5, Lightning 1
- SEALED ODDS
- -143Caesars
- CLOSING ODDS
- Same as sealedat the start
- STAKE
- 1 unitflat, every pick
- RESULT
- LOST -1.00uat the sealed price
- GRADED
- 9:54 PM ETreceipt #15
Game Center
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| NYR | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
Play-by-play
- [3- 20:00] Game End
- [3- 20:00] End of 3rd Period
- [3- 19:52] Joseph Veleno faceoff won against Jake Guentzel
- [3- 19:52] Goalie Stopped
- [3- 19:50] Jake Guentzel saved by Igor Shesterkin
- [3- 19:03] Joseph Veleno faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
- [3- 19:03] Sean Durzi Delaying Game - Puck over glass
- [3- 18:55] Missed Shot
- [3- 18:51] Giveaway by Noah Laba
- [3- 18:44] Takeaway by Marcus Pettersson
- [3- 18:29] Jansen Harkins hit Sean Durzi
- [3- 18:22] J.J. Moser hit Will Cuylle
Leaders
- Mika Zibanejad (NYR): 1
- Adam Fox (NYR): 2
- Mika Zibanejad (NYR): 2
- Nikita Kucherov (TB): 1
- Brayden Point (TB): 1
- Nikita Kucherov (TB): 1
Game-day injuries
- Joonas Korpisalo (NYR) - Injured Reserve
- Aidan Thompson (NYR) - Injured Reserve
- Adam Sykora (NYR) - Injured Reserve
- Yanni Gourde (TB) - Injured Reserve
- Dominic James (TB) - Injured Reserve
TBLTale of the tape
NYRLightning vs Rangers recent form
TBL 2-3 Lightning: last 5 games
- L1-2MTL May 3 Montreal Canadiens, 1-2
- W1-0MTL May 1 Montreal Canadiens, 1-0
- L2-3MTL Apr 29 Montreal Canadiens, 2-3
- W3-2MTL Apr 26 Montreal Canadiens, 3-2
- L2-3MTL Apr 24 Montreal Canadiens, 2-3
NYR 1-4 Rangers: last 5 games
- L0-3BOS Sep 29 Boston Bruins, 0-3
- W4-2TBL Apr 15 Tampa Bay Lightning, 4-2
- L2-3FLA Apr 13 Florida Panthers, 2-3
- L0-2DAL Apr 11 Dallas Stars, 0-2
- L3-5BUF Apr 8 Buffalo Sabres, 3-5
Goals scored, last 5TBL 9NYR 9
Goals allowed, last 5fewer is betterTBL 10NYR 15
Lightning vs Rangers head-to-head
Since Feb 7, 2024: Lightning 4, Rangers 4
- Apr 15, 2026Rangers 4-2
- Nov 29, 2025Lightning 4-1
- Nov 12, 2025Rangers 7-3
- Apr 17, 2025Rangers 4-0
- Apr 7, 2025Lightning 5-1
- Dec 28, 2024Lightning 6-2
- Mar 14, 2024Lightning 6-3
- Feb 7, 2024Rangers 3-1
Lightning vs Rangers line movement
Market (latest pregame line)
Spread (NYR)
+1.5
Total
5.5
Moneyline
- TBL
- -150
- NYR
- +132
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (13 snapshots)
- Moneyline (NYR) at FanDuel: opened +118, now +126
- Spread (NYR) at FanDuel: opened +1.5, now +1.5
- Total at FanDuel: opened 5.5, now 5.5
Agatha's pick for Lightning vs Rangers
The Lightning. Agatha gave Tampa Bay a 56% chance to win at Madison Square Garden, New York. It was one of Agatha's Best NHL Bets for Oct 1.
TV: ESPN+