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Oilers vs Lightning Prediction

Thursday, Nov 19, 2026, 7:30 PM ET, Benchmark International Arena, Tampa

Agatha Research Desk

Edmonton OilersAWAYEdmontonOilers

PREDICTED SCORE

0350

Lightning win by 2

AGATHA'S PICKTampa Bay LightningHOMETampa BayLightning
56%WIN CHANCELightning to WinSEALS AT 7:15 PM ET

Win chance can move until the seal

Agatha's pick: Lightning to WinTHE VERDICT
EDM

Tale of the tape

TBL

This season

Goals per gameEDM 4.1TBL 3.7
Goals against per gamefewer is betterEDM 2.9TBL 3.1

Oilers vs Lightning recent form

WHY

EDM 3-2 Oilers: last 5 games

  1. W3-1v NYR Nov 9 vs New York Rangers, 3-1
  2. W4-2v VAN Nov 7 vs Vancouver Canucks, 4-2
  3. L4-5v ANA Nov 5 vs Anaheim Ducks, 4-5
  4. L3-4@ NJD Nov 3 at New Jersey Devils, 3-4
  5. W4-1@ NYR Nov 1 at New York Rangers, 4-1

TBL 3-2 Lightning: last 5 games

  1. L3-4@ WPG Nov 8 at Winnipeg Jets, 3-4
  2. W4-3@ MIN Nov 7 at Minnesota Wild, 4-3
  3. W4-1v CHI Nov 5 vs Chicago Blackhawks, 4-1
  4. W4-2v DET Nov 3 vs Detroit Red Wings, 4-2
  5. L4-5@ NSH Oct 31 at Nashville Predators, 4-5
Goals scored, last 5EDM 18TBL 19
Goals allowed, last 5fewer is betterEDM 13TBL 15

Oilers vs Lightning key players

WHY

Edmonton OilersTampa Bay Lightning

Most starts Goalies

Devon LeviG2026-27Andrei VasilevskiyG2026-27
Save %EDM .898TBL .881
GAAlower is betterEDM 2.75TBL 2.85
StartsEDM 9TBL 13
Connor McDavidC2026-27Nikita KucherovRW2026-27
11 Goals - 37 Assists5 Goals - 17 Assists
PointsEDM 48TBL 22
Leon DraisaitlC2026-27Brandon HagelLW2026-27
18 Goals - 18 Assists9 Goals - 9 Assists
PointsEDM 36TBL 18

Oilers vs Lightning injury report

Edmonton Oilers

Tampa Bay Lightning

Oilers vs Lightning head-to-head

WHY

Since Nov 18, 2023: Lightning 5, Oilers 1

  1. Mar 21, 2026Lightning 5-2
  2. Nov 20, 2025Lightning 2-1
  3. Feb 25, 2025Lightning 4-1
  4. Dec 10, 2024Oilers 2-1
  5. Dec 14, 2023Lightning 7-4
  6. Nov 18, 2023Lightning 6-4

Who will win Oilers vs Lightning?

The Lightning. Agatha gives Tampa Bay a 56% chance to win and predicts a 5-3 final at Benchmark International Arena, Tampa. It is Agatha's prediction for this game, sealed and graded like every pick.

Why Agatha picks the Lightning

The Lightning won five of the six meetings since Nov 18, 2023, including the latest, 5-2 on the road on Mar 21, 2026. They are 8-0-0 at home this season. Nikita Kucherov has 5 goals and 17 assists in 17 games, and Jake Guentzel has 10 goals. Agatha predicts a 5-3 Lightning win, a little better than a coin flip. The risk is the Oilers are 7-0-1 on the road this season and have won two games in a row.

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