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Hooker vs Ortega Prediction

Saturday, Nov 21, 2026, 1:00 PM ET

Agatha Research Desk

Dan HookerDanHooker

MATCHUP

vs

AGATHA'S PICKBrian OrtegaBrianOrtega
59%WIN CHANCEOrtega to WinSEALS AT 12:45 PM ET

Win chance can move until the seal

Agatha's pick: Ortega to WinTHE VERDICT
Hooker

Tale of the tape

Ortega

Hooker vs Ortega recent form

Hooker Hooker: last fight

  1. LSep 5 Sep 5 Salahdine Parnasse, KO/TKO, R1

Hooker vs Ortega tale of the tape

WHY
Dan HookerBrian Ortega
Pro recordHooker 24-15-0W-L-DOrtega 16-5-0W-L-D
UFC recordHooker 14-1125 UFC fightsOrtega 8-5, 1 NC14 UFC fights
UFC wins byHooker 7-2-5KO - SUB - DECOrtega 3-4-1KO - SUB - DEC

Market (latest pregame line)

Moneyline

Dan Hooker
-162
Brian Ortega
+136

Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (1 snapshot)

  • Moneyline (Dan Hooker) at DraftKings: opened -162, now -162

Who will win Hooker vs Ortega?

Brian Ortega. Agatha gives Ortega a 59% chance to win. It is Agatha's prediction for this fight, sealed and graded like every pick.

Why Agatha picks Ortega

Agatha rates Dan Hooker 1600 and Brian Ortega 1661, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Dan Hooker is 36: the model takes 29 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Brian Ortega is 35: the model takes 22 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Brian Ortega has not fought in 15 months: ring rust costs 4 rating points in the model. Net gap after those adjustments: 63 rating points toward Brian Ortega, which converts to 59-41.