AGATHANo gut feelings

In season

UFC Schedule

Every UFC fight on the next card, with Agatha's winner call and her confidence beside the market's own number.

The Fight Card: Agatha's Read on Every Bout

Sat 10/3 - UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang

Early Prelims

  1. Court McGee to winCourt McGee vs Eric Nolan - Welterweight - 3 rounds - 4:00 PM ET
    WHY?

    Agatha rates Court McGee 1516 and Eric Nolan 1423, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Court McGee is 41: the model takes 59 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Court McGee has not fought in 16 months: ring rust costs 5 rating points in the model. Net gap after those adjustments: 29 rating points toward Court McGee, which converts to 54-46. The market disagrees: it favors Eric Nolan at 69% across 1 book.

    54%3.10BetssonDOG
  2. Marvin Vettori to winMarvin Vettori vs Ismail Naurdiev - Middleweight - 3 rounds - 4:00 PM ET
    WHY?

    Agatha rates Marvin Vettori 1614 and Ismail Naurdiev 1599, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Marvin Vettori is 33: the model takes 6 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Net gap after those adjustments: 9 rating points toward Marvin Vettori, which converts to 51-49. The market disagrees: it favors Ismail Naurdiev at 52% across 1 book.

    51%2.00BetOnlineDOG
  3. Alexander Hernandez to winRafael Dos Anjos vs Alexander Hernandez - Lightweight - 3 rounds - 4:00 PM ET
    WHY?

    Agatha rates Rafael Dos Anjos 1636 and Alexander Hernandez 1626, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Rafael Dos Anjos is 41: the model takes 60 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Rafael Dos Anjos has not fought in 23 months: ring rust costs 14 rating points in the model. Alexander Hernandez is 34: the model takes 12 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Net gap after those adjustments: 52 rating points toward Alexander Hernandez, which converts to 57-43. The market agrees: 69% for Alexander Hernandez across 1 book.

    57%1.391xBet
  4. Johnny Walker to winJohnny Walker vs Mick Parkin - Heavyweight - 3 rounds - 4:00 PM ET
    WHY?

    Agatha rates Johnny Walker 1646 and Mick Parkin 1588, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Johnny Walker is 34: the model takes 15 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Mick Parkin has not fought in 18 months: ring rust costs 8 rating points in the model. Net gap after those adjustments: 50 rating points toward Johnny Walker, which converts to 57-43. The market agrees: 57% for Johnny Walker across 1 book.

    57%1.71Betsson

Prelims

  1. Anthony Wint to winAnthony Wint vs Lucas Armand - Heavyweight - 3 rounds - 6:00 PM ET
    WHY?

    Agatha rates Anthony Wint 1548; Lucas Armand has no UFC record in her database and enters at the 1500.0 baseline every debut starts from. Net gap after those adjustments: 48 rating points toward Anthony Wint, which converts to 57-43. No market line matched; this is Agatha's model alone. Lucas Armand is new to Agatha's data (no rating yet).

    57%DEBUT: Lucas Armand
  2. Marcus McGhee to winMarcus McGhee vs Bernardo Sopaj - Bantamweight - 3 rounds - 6:00 PM ET
    WHY?

    Agatha rates Marcus McGhee 1639 and Bernardo Sopaj 1532, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Marcus McGhee is 36: the model takes 26 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Net gap after those adjustments: 81 rating points toward Marcus McGhee, which converts to 61-39. The market agrees: 56% for Marcus McGhee across 1 book.

    61%1.701xBet
  3. Damian Pinas to winDamian Pinas vs Andrey Pulyaev - Middleweight - 3 rounds - 6:00 PM ET
    WHY?

    Agatha rates Damian Pinas 1581 and Andrey Pulyaev 1453, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Net gap after those adjustments: 128 rating points toward Damian Pinas, which converts to 68-32. The market agrees: 80% for Damian Pinas across 1 book.

    68%1.191xBet
  4. Alden Coria to winImanol Rodriguez vs Alden Coria - Flyweight - 3 rounds - 6:00 PM ET
    WHY?

    Agatha rates Imanol Rodriguez 1530 and Alden Coria 1583, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Net gap after those adjustments: 52 rating points toward Alden Coria, which converts to 57-43. The market disagrees: it favors Imanol Rodriguez at 60% across 1 book.

    57%2.45BetssonDOG

Main Card

  1. Ateba Gautier to winAteba Gautier vs Roman Kopylov - Middleweight - 3 rounds - 8:00 PM ET
    WHY?

    Agatha rates Ateba Gautier 1666 and Roman Kopylov 1589, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Roman Kopylov is 34: the model takes 14 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Net gap after those adjustments: 91 rating points toward Ateba Gautier, which converts to 63-37. The market agrees: 62% for Ateba Gautier across 1 book.

    63%1.56BetOnline
  2. Khaos Williams to winRoberto Soldic vs Khaos Williams - Welterweight - 3 rounds - 8:00 PM ET
    WHY?

    Agatha rates Khaos Williams 1605; Roberto Soldic has no UFC record in her database and enters at the 1500.0 baseline every debut starts from. Khaos Williams is 32: the model takes 3 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Net gap after those adjustments: 102 rating points toward Khaos Williams, which converts to 64-36. No market line matched; this is Agatha's model alone. Roberto Soldic is new to Agatha's data (no rating yet).

    64%DEBUT: Roberto Soldic
  3. King Green to winKing Green vs Esteban Ribovics - Lightweight - 3 rounds - 8:00 PM ET
    WHY?

    Agatha rates King Green 1727 and Esteban Ribovics 1594, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. King Green is 40: the model takes 48 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Net gap after those adjustments: 85 rating points toward King Green, which converts to 62-38. The market disagrees: it favors Esteban Ribovics at 71% across 1 book.

    62%3.211xBetDOG
  4. Payton Talbott to winDeiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott - Bantamweight - 3 rounds - 8:00 PM ET
    WHY?

    Agatha rates Deiveson Figueiredo 1650 and Payton Talbott 1663, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Deiveson Figueiredo is 38: the model takes 41 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Net gap after those adjustments: 54 rating points toward Payton Talbott, which converts to 58-42. The market agrees: 83% for Payton Talbott across 2 books.

    58%1.17Betfair
  5. Natalia Silva to winNatalia Silva vs Wang Cong - Women's Flyweight - 5 rounds - 8:00 PM ET
    WHY?

    Agatha rates Natalia Silva 1741 and Wang Cong 1633, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Wang Cong is 34: the model takes 14 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Net gap after those adjustments: 121 rating points toward Natalia Silva, which converts to 67-33. No market line matched; this is Agatha's model alone.

    67%1.50BetfairMAIN EVENT