UFC Schedule

Agatha rates Juan Diaz 1546 and Alatengheili 1570, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Alatengheili is 34: the model takes 18 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Net gap after those adjustments: 6 rating points toward Alatengheili, which converts to 51-49. The market disagrees: it favors Juan Diaz at 74% across 7 books.

Agatha rates Evan Elder 1525; Samuel Sanches has no UFC record in her database and enters at the 1500.0 baseline every debut starts from. Evan Elder has not fought in 19 months: ring rust costs 8 rating points in the model. Net gap after those adjustments: 17 rating points toward Evan Elder, which converts to 52-48. The market disagrees: it favors Samuel Sanches at 52% across 5 books. Samuel Sanches is new to Agatha's data (no rating yet).

Agatha rates Macy Chiasson 1543 and Bia Mesquita 1628, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Macy Chiasson is 35: the model takes 20 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Bia Mesquita is 35: the model takes 22 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Net gap after those adjustments: 83 rating points toward Bia Mesquita, which converts to 62-38. The market agrees: 69% for Bia Mesquita across 3 books.

Agatha rates Jared Gordon 1571 and Melquizael Costa 1667, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Jared Gordon is 38: the model takes 37 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Net gap after those adjustments: 133 rating points toward Melquizael Costa, which converts to 68-32. The market agrees: 77% for Melquizael Costa across 3 books.

Agatha rates Donte Johnson 1590 and Cesar Almeida 1493, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Cesar Almeida is 38: the model takes 40 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Net gap after those adjustments: 136 rating points toward Donte Johnson, which converts to 69-31. The market agrees: 60% for Donte Johnson across 7 books.

Agatha rates Jim Miller 1657 and Terrance McKinney 1610, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Jim Miller is 43: the model takes 67 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Terrance McKinney is 32: the model takes 1 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Net gap after those adjustments: 19 rating points toward Terrance McKinney, which converts to 53-47. The market agrees: 63% for Terrance McKinney across 2 books.

Agatha rates Drew Dober 1599 and Chris Duncan 1623, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Drew Dober is 38: the model takes 36 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Chris Duncan is 33: the model takes 9 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Net gap after those adjustments: 52 rating points toward Chris Duncan, which converts to 57-43. The market agrees: 61% for Chris Duncan across 1 book.

Agatha rates Stephen Thompson 1624 and Charles Radtke 1590, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Stephen Thompson is 43: the model takes 71 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Stephen Thompson has not fought in 16 months: ring rust costs 5 rating points in the model. Charles Radtke is 36: the model takes 26 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Net gap after those adjustments: 16 rating points toward Charles Radtke, which converts to 52-48. The market disagrees: it favors Stephen Thompson at 58% across 5 books.

Agatha rates Bilal Hasan 1539 and Luis Gurule 1396, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Luis Gurule is 32: the model takes 6 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Net gap after those adjustments: 149 rating points toward Bilal Hasan, which converts to 70-30. The market agrees: 89% for Bilal Hasan across 4 books.

Agatha rates Uros Medic 1724 and Kevin Holland 1664, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Uros Medic is 33: the model takes 9 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Kevin Holland is 34: the model takes 12 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Net gap after those adjustments: 63 rating points toward Uros Medic, which converts to 59-41. The market agrees: 58% for Uros Medic across 4 books.

Agatha rates Caio Borralho 1713 and Yousri Belgaroui 1638, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Caio Borralho is 33: the model takes 11 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Yousri Belgaroui is 34: the model takes 15 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Net gap after those adjustments: 79 rating points toward Caio Borralho, which converts to 61-39. The market agrees: 59% for Caio Borralho across 3 books.

Agatha rates Kayla Harrison 1677 and Amanda Nunes 1862, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Kayla Harrison is 36: the model takes 26 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Kayla Harrison has not fought in 17 months: ring rust costs 7 rating points in the model. Amanda Nunes is 38: the model takes 39 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Amanda Nunes has not fought in 41 months: ring rust costs 36 rating points in the model. Net gap after those adjustments: 143 rating points toward Amanda Nunes, which converts to 69-31. The market disagrees: it favors Kayla Harrison at 62% across 5 books.

Agatha rates Ciryl Gane 1910 and Josh Hokit 1701, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Ciryl Gane is 36: the model takes 28 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Net gap after those adjustments: 181 rating points toward Ciryl Gane, which converts to 74-26. The market agrees: 63% for Ciryl Gane across 7 books.