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Motta vs Fan Prediction

Saturday, Nov 21, 2026, 10:00 AM ET

Agatha Research Desk

AGATHA'S PICKNikolas MottaNikolasMotta

MATCHUP

vs

Dom Mar FanDom MarFan
54%WIN CHANCEMotta to WinSEALS AT 9:45 AM ET

Win chance can move until the seal

Agatha's pick: Motta to WinTHE VERDICT

Who will win Motta vs Fan?

Nikolas Motta. Agatha gives Motta a 54% chance to win. It is Agatha's prediction for this fight, sealed and graded like every pick.

Why Agatha picks Motta

Agatha rates Nikolas Motta 1510 and Dom Mar Fan 1468, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database. Nikolas Motta is 33: the model takes 11 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade. Nikolas Motta has not fought in 17 months: ring rust costs 6 rating points in the model. Net gap after those adjustments: 26 rating points toward Nikolas Motta, which converts to 54-46.

Motta

Tale of the tape

Fan

Motta vs Fan tale of the tape

WHY
Nikolas MottaDom Mar Fan
Pro recordMotta 15-6-0W-L-DFan 9-3-0W-L-D
UFC recordMotta 3-3, 1 NC7 UFC fightsFan 1-12 UFC fights
UFC wins byMotta 2-0-1KO - SUB - DECFan 0-0-1KO - SUB - DEC

Market (latest pregame line)

Moneyline

Nikolas Motta
+128
Dom Mar Fan
-159

Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (1 snapshot)

  • Moneyline (Nikolas Motta) at BetOnline: opened +136, now +136