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Nurgozhay vs Lorenz Prediction

Saturday, Nov 21, 2026, 10:00 AM ET

Agatha Research Desk

AGATHA'S PICKDiyar NurgozhayDiyarNurgozhay

MATCHUP

vs

Alik LorenzAlikLorenz
52%WIN CHANCENurgozhay to WinSEALS AT 9:45 AM ET

Win chance can move until the seal

Agatha's pick: Nurgozhay to WinTHE VERDICT

Who will win Nurgozhay vs Lorenz?

Diyar Nurgozhay. Agatha gives Nurgozhay a 52% chance to win. It is Agatha's prediction for this fight, sealed and graded like every pick.

Why Agatha picks Nurgozhay

Agatha rates Diyar Nurgozhay 1511; Alik Lorenz has no UFC record in her database and enters at the 1500.0 baseline every debut starts from. Net gap after those adjustments: 11 rating points toward Diyar Nurgozhay, which converts to 52-48. Alik Lorenz is new to Agatha's data (no rating yet).

Nurgozhay

Tale of the tape

Lorenz

Nurgozhay vs Lorenz recent form

Nurgozhay Nurgozhay: last fight

  1. WAug 8 Aug 8 Bruno Lopes, KO/TKO, R1

Lorenz Lorenz: last fight

  1. WAug 18 Aug 18 Mahamed Aly, KO/TKO, R1

Nurgozhay vs Lorenz tale of the tape

WHY
Diyar NurgozhayAlik Lorenz
Pro recordNurgozhay 12-2-0W-L-DLorenz 8-2-0W-L-D
UFC recordNurgozhay 2-24 UFC fightsLorenz 1-01 UFC fights
UFC wins byNurgozhay 1-0-1KO - SUB - DECLorenz 1-0-0KO - SUB - DEC

Market (latest pregame line)

Moneyline

Diyar Nurgozhay
-265
Alik Lorenz
+205

Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (1 snapshot)

  • Moneyline (Diyar Nurgozhay) at BetOnline: opened -265, now -265