Marvin Vettori vs Ismail Naurdiev Prediction
Agatha's call
Marvin Vettori to win51%
DOGPrice 2.00 at BetOnline
Why
Agatha rates Marvin Vettori 1614 and Ismail Naurdiev 1599, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database.
Marvin Vettori is 33: the model takes 6 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade.
Net gap after those adjustments: 9 rating points toward Marvin Vettori, which converts to 51-49.
The market disagrees: it favors Ismail Naurdiev at 52% across 1 book.
Market (latest pregame line)
Total
2.5
Moneyline
- Marvin Vettori
- 2.15
- Draw
- 33.00
- Ismail Naurdiev
- 1.74
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (1 snapshot)
- Moneyline (home): opened 2.20, now 2.20
- Moneyline (home): opened 2.15, now 2.17