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NCAAF Heat Check

College Football Heat Check, Montana State 5-0 in Their Last 5

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Form is the story the standings tell slowly and the last ten games tell fast. Right now the fast version of College Football is easy to summarize: Montana State are rolling, Utah Tech are reeling, and the gap between those two feelings is enormous.

The warm end of the table

Nobody is playing better than Montana State right now. The record says 5-0 over their last 5; the points column says even more, a +113 margin that works out to 37.6 scored and 15.0 allowed a night.

Right behind them sit Lehigh, 5-0 over the same kind of stretch and +97 on points margin, quieter, but pointed the same direction.

And do not sleep on South Dakota State, quietly 4-1 across their last 5.

For scale, the league as a whole is averaging 24.3 points a game over this window, Montana State are clearing that bar by 13.3 a night all on their own.

The deep freeze

Then there is Utah Tech. A 0-5 stretch is ugly on its own; pair it with a -167 points margin and it stops looking like bad luck. They are being outscored by about 33.4 points a game, and no scheduling quirk explains that away.

They have company at the cold end: VMI, 0-5 over the same window.

In between the extremes it gets crowded, Southeast Missouri State at 2-3 and Wofford at 2-3 are basically sharing a seat, and the next series either way will split them.

At a glance

For the fuller picture, the five best recent records in the league:

TeamLast 10Points +/-
Montana State5-0 (5 gm)+113
Lehigh5-0 (5 gm)+97
South Dakota State4-1 (5 gm)+132
Austin Peay4-1 (5 gm)+100
Montana4-1 (5 gm)+68

The fine print

As always, watch where record and points margin tell different stories about the same club. The margin tends to know first.

More NCAAF on Agatha: Today's NCAAF picks

Generated by Agatha from her own database, every number is a query, not an opinion. For entertainment and information; not gambling advice. 21+.

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