AGATHANo gut feelings

Gaston vs Fearnley Prediction

Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026, Time TBA, Round 1

Agatha Research Desk

PREDICTION

AGATHA'S PICKPRED1U

Fearnley to Win

55%WIN CHANCE

PREDICTED SETS

GastonGaston
0-2
FearnleyFearnley

Predicted 0-2

Win chance can move until the seal

SEALS ATSEALS-
BEST ODDSBEST-196PinnacleBET

Where to bet it

Fearnley to win: best odds

MATCHbest price first - 3 books

  1. Pinnacle-196-196
  2. bet365-200-200
  3. FanDuel-205-205

Match at Pinnacle: opened -196, now -196

Gaston vs Fearnley line movement

MATCH Fearnley to win at bet365

Who will win Gaston vs Fearnley?

Jacob Fearnley. Agatha gives Fearnley a 55% chance to win and predicts a 2-0 win in sets. It is Agatha's prediction for this match, sealed and graded like every pick.

Why Agatha picks Fearnley

Hugo Gaston has lost two matches in a row, the latest at the Rolex Shanghai Masters. Jacob Fearnley beat Martin Landaluce 4-6, 6-2, 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 in Round 1 of the US Open on Aug 31. Gaston also lost to Liam Draxl 7-5, 6-4 in the first qualifying round of the Rolex Shanghai Masters on Oct 5. Agatha picks Fearnley to win, slightly better than even, and predicts straight sets. The risk is Fearnley's long break, having last played on Sep 2, 48 days before this match.

Gaston vs Fearnley recent form

Gaston: last 5 matches

Last 5: 2-3

  1. Oct 5Liam DraxlL5-7, 4-6
  2. Sep 27Andrey RublevL7-6(6), 6-7(4), 1-6
  3. Sep 25Jaime FariaW4-6, 7-6(5), 6-4
  4. Sep 24Sho ShimabukuroW6-4, 6-4
  5. Aug 30Daniil MedvedevL4-6, 2-6, 4-6

Fearnley: last 5 matches

Last 5: 3-2

  1. Sep 2Tomas Martin EtcheverryL3-6, 3-6, 6-3, 3-6
  2. Aug 31Martin LandaluceW4-6, 6-2, 4-6, 7-5, 6-3
  3. Aug 28Jurij RodionovL6-4, 4-6, 4-6
  4. Aug 26Luka PavlovicW6-4, 6-7(4), 6-4
  5. Aug 24Roberto Carballes BaenaW7-6(3), 6-3

Gaston vs Fearnley player stats

  • Hugo Gaston

    ATP ranking
    No. 89677 pts
    2026 record
    6-10
    Titles
    03 finals

Market (latest pregame line)

Moneyline

Hugo Gaston
+163
Jacob Fearnley
-200

Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (3 snapshots)

  • Moneyline (Jacob Fearnley) at bet365: opened -278, now -200