St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Agatha's pick
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers - 7:10 PM ETAgatha projects STL 3, MIL 4Final: Cardinals 2 - Brewers 360%WONLEAN1UWONSEALED ODDS1.65
Agatha makes the Milwaukee Brewers 60% to win this game; the best price at BetUS implies only about 59%. That 1-point gap is why this is a pick. Recent form splits them: 8-2 for the Brewers, 3-7 for the Cardinals.Sealed Pick #1474 @ Sep 26, 6:55 PM ETFingerprint9572858d13fd848c47e537c52869fdca844e15027d0e6145fcac363b34bfee90Transaction419a91bedd37013d1c66f08a972026f07dcd6ec531a05e9b39a6a0fac0d09d14Open keyb129a1c4e68bd084cdd92e91ce05500f1d6ce89fb53336437bd14cc6d5995e5d- St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers - 7:10 PM ETFinished with 7 Ks57%WONLEAN1UWONSEALED ODDS1.87
The books hung 4.5 strikeouts on Quinn Mathews; Agatha prices the over at 57% against roughly 51% implied at Fanatics, a 6-point disagreement. His recent work: 3, 8, 4, 4, 7 strikeouts over his last five starts (4.9 average); the over of 4.5 would have cashed in 2 of them. The matchup helps: Milwaukee Brewers hitters strike out 8.8 times a game, ranking 7 of 30 in strikeout-proneness over the last four months.Sealed Pick #1475 @ Sep 26, 6:55 PM ETFingerprint29ac78859dbc2df45b5bf757d5a23c6bfcf1f497dbe793d3bf308b4c4e989801Transaction20722460ac98e614d0fb62bfcb160e326c05863fdf9f713400f6b22aa229e2d4Open keyb129a1c4e68bd084cdd92e91ce05500f1d6ce89fb53336437bd14cc6d5995e5d - St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers - 7:10 PM ETFinished with 5 Ks57%WONLEAN1UWONSEALED ODDS2.76
The books hung 3.5 strikeouts on Dustin May; Agatha prices the over at 57% against roughly 41% implied at Pinnacle, a 16-point disagreement. His recent work: 2, 4, 6, 5, 4 strikeouts over his last five starts (3.5 average); the over of 3.5 would have cashed in 4 of them. The matchup helps: Milwaukee Brewers hitters strike out 8.8 times a game, ranking 7 of 30 in strikeout-proneness over the last four months.Sealed Pick #1476 @ Sep 26, 6:55 PM ETFingerprintdf266a911636d888880488e31d81d3b1246396115f536e3f424df472b5cd69f8Transaction1b546fefeadb89e998a2e67b6438f87c49bb428acccc54e1829870878d66c5d6Open keyb129a1c4e68bd084cdd92e91ce05500f1d6ce89fb53336437bd14cc6d5995e5d
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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 3 |
ESPN live win probability: MIL 100%
Play-by-play
- [9] Bernal struck out swinging.
- [9] Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
- [9] Pitch 4 : Ball 2
- [9] Pitch 3 : Ball 1
- [9] Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
- [9] Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
- [9] Aaron Ashby pitches to Leo Bernal
- [9] Walker grounded out to second.
- [9] Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
- [9] Pitch 3 : Ball 1
Game-day injuries
- Grant Anderson (MIL) - 15-Day-IL
- Joey Ortiz (MIL) - Day-To-Day
- Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 60-Day-IL
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) - 10-Day-IL
- Quinn Priester (MIL) - 60-Day-IL
- Everson Pereira (STL) - 10-Day-IL
- Masyn Winn (STL) - Out
- Blaze Jordan (STL) - 10-Day-IL
- Joshua Baez (STL) - 10-Day-IL
- Hunter Dobbins (STL) - 15-Day-IL
Market (latest pregame line)
Spread (MIL)
-1.5
Total
7.5
Moneyline
- STL
- 2.38
- MIL
- 1.65
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (3 snapshots)
- Moneyline (home): opened 1.53, now 1.63
- Moneyline (home): opened 1.56, now 1.65
Trends
Trends describe the past. They are not predictions and carry no edge - Agatha's pick is made independently.
St. Louis Cardinals
- The Cardinals are 46-58 as underdogs this season, their role tonight (-0.9u flat at closing prices).
- The over has hit in 29 of the last 50 Cardinals games with a closing total (+5.4u flat).
- The Cardinals are 2-8 over their last 10 games.
- The Cardinals are 2-8 over their last 10 on the road.
Milwaukee Brewers
- The Brewers are 82-43 as favorites this season, their role tonight (+11.0u flat at closing prices).
- The under has hit in 27 of the last 50 Brewers games with a closing total (+1.2u flat).
- The Brewers are 8-2 over their last 10 games.
- The Brewers are 8-2 over their last 10 at home.
Season series: the Brewers lead 10-2.
Priced trends settle against Agatha's own closing-line archive (tracked since May 2023) at flat 1u stakes.