St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
Agatha's pick
St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates - 12:35 PM ETAgatha projects STL 0, PIT 4Final: Cardinals 1 - Pirates 261%WONLEAN1UWONSEALED ODDS1.64
The Pittsburgh Pirates at 61% is Agatha's number; 59% is what the price at BetOnline implies. That 2-point difference is the whole reason you are seeing this. The Pirates come in 6-4 across their last ten; the Cardinals arrive 4-6.Sealed Pick #1271 @ Sep 24, 12:20 PM ETFingerprint196384b26c7d5c0b441da0ec0cbbe1332fe81bb1c2b0d8f2e0c6b2461ca9fa83Transactiondf5d5d174800e77b6064f295271ee5d22d5fb33e8a80bf7b610b9756c9e0fbbfOpen key8bb78cf33a8e27c1f5339f96731d82f0c54474e6768ccc183463662d700e8909- St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates - 12:35 PM ETFinished with 3 Ks55%LOSTLEAN1ULOSTSEALED ODDS2.38
The strikeout line on Kyle Leahy sits at 3.5. Agatha reads the over 14 points richer than the market: 55% against an implied 41% at Pinnacle. His recent work: 1, 4, 6, 3, 4 strikeouts over his last five starts (4.8 average); the over of 3.5 would have cashed in 3 of them. The matchup helps: Pittsburgh Pirates hitters strike out 9.3 times a game, ranking 5 of 30 in strikeout-proneness over the last four months.Sealed Pick #1272 @ Sep 24, 12:20 PM ETFingerprintfe69e5305b117532df1acba7f9ba548b99c39fddb969495f39f4201de9efb695Transactionbb58316ff3b9e534e024b5d02b7ffe6accaba1897264b94a77c06b3911ea4654Open key8bb78cf33a8e27c1f5339f96731d82f0c54474e6768ccc183463662d700e8909
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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | 2 |
ESPN live win probability: PIT 100%
Play-by-play
- [9] Saggese struck out swinging.
- [9] Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
- [9] Pitch 4 : Ball 2
- [9] Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
- [9] Pitch 2 : Ball 1
- [9] Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
- [9] Mason Montgomery pitches to Thomas Saggese
- [9] Fermin struck out swinging.
- [9] Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging
- [9] Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
Game-day injuries
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) - 10-Day-IL
- Isaac Mattson (PIT) - 15-Day-IL
- Mitch Keller (PIT) - 60-Day-IL
- Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) - 15-Day-IL
- Endy Rodriguez (PIT) - 60-Day-IL
- Everson Pereira (STL) - 10-Day-IL
- Blaze Jordan (STL) - 10-Day-IL
- Joshua Baez (STL) - 10-Day-IL
- Hunter Dobbins (STL) - 15-Day-IL
- Max Rajcic (STL) - 60-Day-IL
Market (latest pregame line)
Spread (PIT)
-1.5
Total
7
Moneyline
- STL
- 2.45
- PIT
- 1.63
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (9 snapshots)
- Moneyline (home): opened 1.63, now 1.59
- Moneyline (home): opened 1.69, now 1.63