Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction
Agatha's pick
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres - 8:40 PM ETAgatha projects ARI 5, SD 6Final: Diamondbacks 7 - Padres 1055%WONLEAN1UWONSEALED ODDS1.85
Agatha makes the San Diego Padres 55% to win this game; the best price at BetRivers implies only about 53%. That 2-point gap is why this is a pick. Form check: the Padres are 7-3 over their last ten, the Diamondbacks 7-3.Sealed Pick #1499 @ Sep 26, 8:25 PM ETFingerprint081c047b62a5aa15bfe7f44401da97e7339bf41c6f6020ff3a393ac302fc6de4Transactionb490ea60af4773f581328d499d47c2593d38db40f0336a289c94615dfd9609b9Open keyb129a1c4e68bd084cdd92e91ce05500f1d6ce89fb53336437bd14cc6d5995e5d
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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| SD | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - | 10 |
ESPN live win probability: SD 100%
Play-by-play
- [9] Vargas struck out swinging.
- [9] Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging
- [9] Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging
- [9] Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
- [9] Arenado to second on fielder's indifference.
- [9] Arenado to second on fielder's indifference.
- [9] Pitch 1 : Ball 1
- [9] Mason Miller pitches to Ildemaro Vargas
- [9] Arenado singled to center, Marte scored, Carroll to third.
- [9] Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
Game-day injuries
- Joe Musgrove (SD) - 60-Day-IL
- Miguel Andujar (SD) - 10-Day-IL
- Jeremiah Estrada (SD) - 15-Day-IL
- Lucas Giolito (SD) - 60-Day-IL
- Casey Mize (SD) - 15-Day-IL
- Corbin Burnes (ARI) - 15-Day-IL
- Tyler Locklear (ARI) - 60-Day-IL
- Ryan Thompson (ARI) - 60-Day-IL
- A.J. Puk (ARI) - 60-Day-IL
- Andrew Saalfrank (ARI) - 60-Day-IL
Market (latest pregame line)
Spread (SD)
+1.5
Total
7.5
Moneyline
- ARI
- 2.04
- SD
- 1.80
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (21 snapshots)
- Moneyline (home): opened 1.85, now 1.80
- Moneyline (home): opened 1.80, now 1.84
Trends
Trends describe the past. They are not predictions and carry no edge - Agatha's pick is made independently.
Arizona Diamondbacks
- The Diamondbacks are 45-47 as underdogs this season, their role tonight (+7.8u flat at closing prices).
- The under has hit in 27 of the last 50 Diamondbacks games with a closing total (+1.4u flat).
- The Diamondbacks are 6-4 over their last 10 games.
- The Diamondbacks are 8-2 over their last 10 on the road.
San Diego Padres
- The Padres are 50-31 as favorites this season, their role tonight (+3.5u flat at closing prices).
- The over has hit in 27 of the last 50 Padres games with a closing total (+1.2u flat).
- The Padres are 8-2 over their last 10 games.
- The Padres are 8-2 over their last 10 at home.
Season series tied 6-6.
Priced trends settle against Agatha's own closing-line archive (tracked since May 2023) at flat 1u stakes.