New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction
Agatha's pick
New York Mets at Washington Nationals - 12:35 PM ETFinished with 1 Ks60%LOSTLEAN1ULOSTSEALED ODDS2.30
The strikeout line on Connelly Early sits at 3.5. Agatha reads the over 18 points richer than the market: 60% against an implied 42% at Bovada. His recent work: 5, 9, 7, 3, 6 strikeouts over his last five starts (6.0 average); the over of 3.5 would have cashed in 4 of them. The matchup helps: Washington Nationals hitters strike out 8.3 times a game, ranking 18 of 30 in strikeout-proneness over the last four months.Sealed Pick #1414 @ Sep 26, 12:20 PM ETFingerprint95cdc8d07c75e854dba683399c582b1784cdf8b64f0e4cbebb83d7b26b26b77aTransactionf7b5cf0f764cc872513ea8c37e31b9418e53533111b355f62b3161785a818534Open keyb129a1c4e68bd084cdd92e91ce05500f1d6ce89fb53336437bd14cc6d5995e5d
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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
ESPN live win probability: WSH 0%
Play-by-play
- [9] End of the 9th inning
- [9] Lile flied out to center.
- [9] Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
- [9] Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
- [9] Tobias Myers pitches to Daylen Lile
- [9] Tena struck out looking.
- [9] Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking
- [9] Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking
- [9] Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul
- [9] Pitch 1 : Ball 1
Game-day injuries
- Orlando Ribalta (WSH) - 15-Day-IL
- PJ Poulin (WSH) - 60-Day-IL
- Matt Waldron (WSH) - 60-Day-IL
- Drew Millas (WSH) - 60-Day-IL
- Ken Waldichuk (WSH) - 60-Day-IL
- Christian Scott (NYM) - 15-Day-IL
- Jared Young (NYM) - 7-Day IL
- Daniel Duarte (NYM) - 15-Day-IL
- Robert Stock (NYM) - 15-Day-IL
- Jorge Polanco (NYM) - 60-Day-IL
Market (latest pregame line)
Spread (WSH)
+1.5
Total
8.5
Moneyline
- NYM
- 1.89
- WSH
- 1.93
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (5 snapshots)
- Moneyline (home): opened 2.15, now 1.91
- Moneyline (home): opened 2.13, now 1.92
Trends
Trends describe the past. They are not predictions and carry no edge - Agatha's pick is made independently.
New York Mets
- The Mets are 31-44 as underdogs this season, their role tonight (-8.8u flat at closing prices).
- The over has hit in 29 of the last 50 Mets games with a closing total (+4.7u flat).
- The Mets are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
- The Mets are 6-4 over their last 10 on the road.
Washington Nationals
- The under has hit in 26 of the last 50 Nationals games with a closing total (-0.6u flat).
- The Nationals are 23-13 as favorites this season, their role tonight (+4.4u flat at closing prices).
- The Nationals are 6-4 over their last 10 games.
- The Nationals are 7-3 over their last 10 at home.
Season series: the Mets lead 7-5.
Priced trends settle against Agatha's own closing-line archive (tracked since May 2023) at flat 1u stakes.