Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
Agatha's pick
Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies - 7:15 PM ETFinished with 0 Ks65%LOSTLEAN1ULOSTSEALED ODDS2.20
The strikeout line on Aaron Nola sits at 2.5. Agatha reads the over 21 points richer than the market: 65% against an implied 44% at Hard Rock. His recent work: 8, 4, 3, 5, 4 strikeouts over his last five starts (6.0 average); the over of 2.5 would have cashed in 5 of them. The matchup helps: Philadelphia Phillies hitters strike out 8.1 times a game, ranking 21 of 30 in strikeout-proneness over the last four months.Sealed Pick #1480 @ Sep 26, 7:00 PM ETFingerprintcb238ff82cace0310516a6c284f952a4d5dd53c7fac55627185111678f450259Transactione80a8e4e939a982479e388217af54f2ab2d6bfdd3935f698331229da97b98353Open keyb129a1c4e68bd084cdd92e91ce05500f1d6ce89fb53336437bd14cc6d5995e5d
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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
ESPN live win probability: PHI 0%
Play-by-play
- [9] End of the 9th inning
- [9] Harper grounded out to first.
- [9] Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
- [9] Pitch 2 : Ball 1
- [9] Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
- [9] Cole Sulser pitches to Bryce Harper
- [9] Schwarber walked.
- [9] Pitch 6 : Ball 4
- [9] Pitch 5 : Ball 3
- [9] Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging
Game-day injuries
- Jonathan Bowlan (PHI) - Day-To-Day
- Luis Arraez (PHI) - Out
- Jesus Luzardo (PHI) - 15-Day-IL
- Caleb Kilian (PHI) - 60-Day-IL
- Felix Reyes (PHI) - 60-Day-IL
- Chandler Simpson (TB) - Day-To-Day
- Gavin Lux (TB) - 60-Day-IL
- Edwin Uceta (TB) - 60-Day-IL
- Jonathan Heasley (TB) - 60-Day-IL
- Shane McClanahan (TB) - 15-Day-IL
Market (latest pregame line)
Spread (PHI)
-1.5
Total
7
Moneyline
- TB
- 2.04
- PHI
- 1.82
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (10 snapshots)
- Moneyline (home): opened 1.95, now 1.80
- Moneyline (home): opened 1.84, now 1.81
Trends
Trends describe the past. They are not predictions and carry no edge - Agatha's pick is made independently.
Tampa Bay Rays
- The Rays are 31-21 as underdogs this season, their role tonight (+12.8u flat at closing prices).
- The over has hit in 26 of the last 50 Rays games with a closing total (-0.6u flat).
- The Rays are 6-4 over their last 10 games.
- The Rays are 5-5 over their last 10 on the road.
Philadelphia Phillies
- The Phillies are 75-44 as favorites this season, their role tonight (+1.8u flat at closing prices).
- The over has hit in 31 of the last 50 Phillies games with a closing total (+8.7u flat).
- The Phillies are 4-6 over their last 10 games.
- The Phillies are 3-7 over their last 10 at home.
Season series: the Rays lead 2-0.
Priced trends settle against Agatha's own closing-line archive (tracked since May 2023) at flat 1u stakes.