Hollywood Casino 400 Prediction
Agatha's win probabilities
Outright call: Denny Hamlin, 24.6%
| Entrant | Win |
|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin #11 | 24.6% |
| Christopher Bell #20 | 6.6% |
| Ty Gibbs #54 | 5.4% |
| Joey Logano #22 | 4.3% |
| Ryan Preece #60 | 4.2% |
| Tyler Reddick #45 | 3.8% |
| Chris Buescher #17 | 3.7% |
| Daniel Suarez #7 | 3.3% |
| Austin Cindric #2 | 3.0% |
| Bubba Wallace #23 | 2.9% |
Agatha prices every car she has data on, and Denny Hamlin comes out on top at 24.6%.
Attrition context: 13% of cars have failed to finish at intermediate ovals in the current-car era (2022 on). The model prices pace; a wreck or a blown engine can beat any number below.
Calibrated win probabilities from 77 seasons of Cup results. In the current parity era the field runs closer than the historical backtest, so an unusually large favorite tends to run cooler than its number. Information only, never a staked play.