South Point 400 Prediction
Sunday, Oct 4, 2026, 5:30 PM ET, Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Las Vegas
Agatha's win probabilities
Outright call: Denny Hamlin, 26.0%
| Entrant | Win |
|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin #11 | 26.0% |
| Christopher Bell #20 | 7.0% |
| Ty Gibbs #54 | 5.1% |
| Ryan Preece #60 | 4.3% |
| Joey Logano #22 | 3.9% |
| Tyler Reddick #45 | 3.8% |
| Daniel Suarez #7 | 3.3% |
| Austin Cindric #2 | 3.3% |
| Chris Buescher #17 | 3.2% |
| Bubba Wallace #23 | 3.1% |
Denny Hamlin at 26.0% is the model's call, built from 77 seasons of Cup results.
Attrition context: 13% of cars have failed to finish at intermediate ovals in the current-car era (2022 on). The model prices pace; a wreck or a blown engine can beat any number below.
Calibrated win probabilities from 77 seasons of Cup results. In the current parity era the field runs closer than the historical backtest, so an unusually large favorite tends to run cooler than its number. Information only, never a staked play.