Boise State vs Fresno State Prediction
Saturday, Oct 10, 2026, 10:30 PM ET, Valley Children's Stadium, Fresno, Week 6
Agatha Research Desk, Updated
AWAYBoise State4-1PREDICTED SCOREPREDICTED SETSMATCHUPLIVEDELAYEDFINALPOSTPONEDLIVE
Predicted --
HOMEFresno State4-1Win chance at the seal 53%
Final score: Boise State 38, Fresno State 31
- SEALED ODDS
- -290BetOnline
- CLOSING ODDS
- -295BetOnline, at the start
- STAKE
- 1 unitflat, every pick
- RESULT
- WON +0.34uat the sealed price
- GRADED
- 2:18 AM ETreceipt #757
Game Center
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | 15 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 38 |
| Fresno State | 13 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 31 |
Leaders
- Jayden Mandal (FRES): 19/33, 218 YDS, 2 TD
- Bryson Donelson (FRES): 4 CAR, 31 YDS
- Ezekiel Avit (FRES): 6 REC, 96 YDS, 2 TD
- Maddux Madsen (BOIS): 23/34, 238 YDS, 2 TD
- Dylan Riley (BOIS): 19 CAR, 150 YDS, 1 TD
- Dylan Riley (BOIS): 4 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
Boise StateTale of the tape
Fresno StateThis season
Boise State vs Fresno State recent form
WHYBoise State 4-1 Boise State: last 5 games
- W37-18 Oct 3 Utah State, 37-18
- W32-7 Sep 26 Western Michigan, 32-7
- W38-24 Sep 19 South Dakota, 38-24
- W38-20 Sep 12 Memphis, 38-20
- L27-34 Sep 5 Oregon, 27-34
Fresno State 4-1 Fresno State: last 5 games
- W26-6 Oct 3 Washington State, 26-6
- W38-24 Sep 26 Rice, 38-24
- W26-10 Sep 19 San Jose State, 26-10
- W49-3 Sep 12 Sacramento State, 49-3
- L0-39 Sep 4 USC, 0-39
Boise State vs Fresno State head-to-head
WHYSince Nov 4, 2023: Fresno State 2, Boise State 0
- Nov 1, 2025Fresno State 30-7
- Nov 4, 2023Fresno State 37-30
Boise State vs Fresno State line movement
Market (latest pregame line)
Spread (Fresno State)
+8.5
Total
48.5
Moneyline
- Boise State
- -325
- Fresno State
- +265
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (29 snapshots)
- Moneyline (Fresno State) at FanDuel: opened +340, now +245
- Spread (Fresno State) at FanDuel: opened +10.5, now +8.5
- Total at FanDuel: opened 49.5, now 48.5
Boise State vs Fresno State betting trends
Trends describe the past. They are not predictions and carry no edge - Agatha's pick is made independently.
Records against the line most North American sportsbooks closed at: win-loss against the spread, over-under on the total, a push third.
Agatha's pick for Boise State vs Fresno State
Boise State. Agatha gave Boise State a 53% chance to win at Valley Children's Stadium, Fresno. It was Agatha's prediction for this game, sealed and graded like every pick.
Why Agatha picked Boise State
Boise State beat Utah State 37-18 at home on Oct 3. Boise State has won four games in a row. Boise State scored more points per game than Fresno State this season, 34.4 to 27.8. Agatha predicts a 30-26 Boise State win, slightly better than even. The risk: Fresno State won both meetings since Nov 4, 2023, the latest 30-7 on the road on Nov 1, 2025.
TV: CW