AGATHANo gut feelings

Sacramento State vs Bowling Green Prediction

Saturday, Oct 10, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, Week 6

Agatha Research Desk, Updated

Sacramento StateAWAYSacramento State1-4

FINAL

1038

AGATHA'S PICKBowling GreenHOMEBowling Green1-4
73%WIN CHANCEBowling Green to WinWON#672 SEALED

Win chance at the seal 73%

Agatha's pick: Bowling Green to WinTHE VERDICT

Final score: Bowling Green 38, Sacramento State 10

SEALED ODDS
-320BetOnline
CLOSING ODDS
Same as sealedat the start
STAKE
1 unitflat, every pick
RESULT
WON +0.31uat the sealed price
GRADED
3:11 PM ETreceipt #672

Game Center

Team1234T
Sacramento State300710
Bowling Green01771438

Leaders

  • Jay Kastantin (BGSU): 11/15, 116 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Austyn Dendy (BGSU): 15 CAR, 86 YDS, 2 TD
  • Jeremiah Scoby (BGSU): 6 REC, 70 YDS
  • Jackson Sharman (SAC): 13/28, 145 YDS, 1 TD
  • Isaiah Ene (SAC): 12 CAR, 46 YDS
  • Matt Coleman (SAC): 6 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
Sacramento State

Tale of the tape

Bowling Green

This season

Points per gameSacramento State 17.6Bowling Green 11.4
Points against per gamefewer is betterSacramento State 28.6Bowling Green 33.0

Sacramento State vs Bowling Green recent form

WHY

Sacramento State 1-4 Sacramento State: last 5 games

  1. L6-35 Sep 26 Massachusetts, 6-35
  2. L10-31 Sep 19 North Dakota State, 10-31
  3. L3-49 Sep 12 Fresno State, 3-49
  4. W52-0 Sep 5 Mississippi Valley State, 52-0
  5. L17-28 Aug 29 Eastern Michigan, 17-28

Bowling Green 1-4 Bowling Green: last 5 games

  1. W24-20 Oct 3 Miami (OH), 24-20
  2. L6-14 Sep 26 South Florida, 6-14
  3. L7-55 Sep 19 Iowa State, 7-55
  4. L7-56 Sep 12 Nebraska, 7-56
  5. L13-20 Sep 5 Tarleton State, 13-20
Points scored, last 5Sacramento State 88Bowling Green 57
Points allowed, last 5fewer is betterSacramento State 143Bowling Green 165

Sacramento State vs Bowling Green line movement

MONEYLINE Bowling Green to win at BetOnline

Market (latest pregame line)

Spread (Bowling Green)

-9.5

Total

43.5

Moneyline

Sacramento State
+260
Bowling Green
-330

Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (20 snapshots)

  • Moneyline (Bowling Green) at FanDuel: opened -260, now -345
  • Spread (Bowling Green) at FanDuel: opened -6.5, now -9.5
  • Total at FanDuel: opened 45.5, now 43.5

Agatha's pick for Sacramento State vs Bowling Green

Bowling Green. Agatha gave Bowling Green a 73% chance to win at Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green. It was Agatha's prediction for this game, sealed and graded like every pick.

Why Agatha picked Bowling Green

Sacramento State has lost three games in a row. The run includes a 35-6 home loss to Massachusetts on Sep 26, and Bowling Green won 24-20 at Miami (OH) on Oct 3. This one is at Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green's home ground. Agatha has Bowling Green winning 37-14, about a 3-in-4 chance. The risk is Bowling Green is 0-2 at home this season, including a 14-6 loss to South Florida at home on Sep 26.

TV: ESPN+

Up next

  1. LIVESacramento State vs Central MichiganAgatha's call: Central Michigan to win, 90%
  2. Fri, Nov 20, 7:30 PM ETBowling Green vs Toledo
  3. LIVEBuffalo vs Ball StateAgatha's call: Buffalo to win, 69%
  4. LIVEMassachusetts vs ToledoAgatha's call: Toledo to win, 93%
  5. Thu, Nov 12, 8:00 PM ETMemphis vs South FloridaAgatha's call: Memphis to win, 64%