AGATHANo gut feelings

UAB vs Memphis Prediction

Saturday, Oct 10, 2026, 7:00 PM ET, Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, Week 6

Agatha Research Desk, Updated

UABAWAYUAB3-2

FINAL

1338

AGATHA'S PICKMemphisHOMEMemphis4-1
84%WIN CHANCEMemphis to WinWON#722 SEALED

Win chance at the seal 84%

Agatha's pick: Memphis to WinTHE VERDICT

Final score: Memphis 38, UAB 13

SEALED ODDS
-650BetMGM
STAKE
1 unitflat, every pick
RESULT
WON +0.15uat the sealed price
GRADED
10:28 PM ETreceipt #722

Game Center

Team1234T
UAB760013
Memphis73141438

Leaders

  • Marcus Stokes (MEM): 11/21, 164 YDS, 2 TD
  • Jaylin Carter (MEM): 19 CAR, 132 YDS, 2 TD
  • Tychaun Chapman (MEM): 2 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD
  • Ryder Burton (UAB): 10/20, 131 YDS, 1 INT
  • Rod Robinson II (UAB): 19 CAR, 65 YDS
  • Ty Mims (UAB): 3 REC, 79 YDS
UAB

Tale of the tape

Memphis

This season

Points per gameWHYUAB 24.0Memphis 38.6
Points against per gamefewer is betterUAB 23.4Memphis 22.4

UAB vs Memphis recent form

UAB 3-2 UAB: last 5 games

  1. W33-14 Oct 3 Samford, 33-14
  2. W24-20 Sep 25 Navy, 24-20
  3. L14-21 Sep 19 Louisiana, 14-21
  4. W26-20 Sep 12 UL Monroe, 26-20
  5. L23-42 Sep 3 Illinois, 23-42

Memphis 4-1 Memphis: last 5 games

  1. W59-8 Oct 3 Charlotte, 59-8
  2. W45-21 Sep 19 UT Martin, 45-21
  3. L20-38 Sep 12 Boise State, 20-38
  4. W42-24 Sep 5 Arkansas State, 42-24
  5. W27-21 Aug 29 UNLV, 27-21
Points scored, last 5UAB 120Memphis 193
Points allowed, last 5fewer is betterUAB 117Memphis 112

UAB vs Memphis head-to-head

WHY

Since Oct 21, 2023: Memphis 2, UAB 1

  1. Oct 18, 2025UAB 31-24
  2. Nov 16, 2024Memphis 53-18
  3. Oct 21, 2023Memphis 45-21

UAB vs Memphis line movement

MONEYLINE Memphis to win at BetMGM

Market (latest pregame line)

Spread (Memphis)

-15.5

Total

55

Moneyline

UAB
+600
Memphis
-1111

Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (34 snapshots)

  • Moneyline (Memphis) at FanDuel: opened -750, now -710
  • Spread (Memphis) at FanDuel: opened -14.5, now -14.5
  • Total at FanDuel: opened 58.5, now 54.5

Agatha's pick for UAB vs Memphis

Memphis. Agatha gave Memphis an 84% chance to win at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis. It was Agatha's prediction for this game, sealed and graded like every pick.

Why Agatha picked Memphis

Memphis won 59-8 at Charlotte on Oct 3. Memphis allowed fewer points per game than UAB this season, 22.4 to 23.4. Memphis is 4-1 this season, and UAB is 3-2. Memphis scores 38.6 points a game and allows 22.4 this season. Agatha's prediction is a 35-21 Memphis win, about a 5-in-6 chance. The risk: UAB won the latest meeting, 31-24 at home on Oct 18, 2025.

TV: ESPN2

Up next

  1. Sat, Nov 14, 1:00 PM ETUAB vs TempleAgatha's call: UAB to win, 68%
  2. Thu, Nov 12, 8:00 PM ETMemphis vs South FloridaAgatha's call: Memphis to win, 64%
  3. LIVEBuffalo vs Ball StateAgatha's call: Buffalo to win, 69%
  4. LIVESacramento State vs Central MichiganAgatha's call: Central Michigan to win, 90%
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