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Falcons vs Saints Prediction

Monday, Oct 5, 2026, 8:15 PM ET, Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Week 4

Agatha Research Desk, Updated

Atlanta FalconsAWAYAtlantaFalcons

FINAL

4524

AGATHA'S PICKNew Orleans SaintsHOMENew OrleansSaints
52%WIN CHANCESaints to WinLOST#369 SEALED

Win chance at the seal 52%

Agatha's pick: Saints to WinTHE VERDICT

Final score: Falcons 45, Saints 24

SEALED ODDS
-108Pinnacle
CLOSING ODDS
-110Pinnacle, at the start
STAKE
1 unitflat, every pick
RESULT
LOST -1.00uat the sealed price
GRADED
11:32 PM ETreceipt #369

Game Center

Team1234T
ATL141071445
NO073724

Play-by-play

  • [4- 2:00] Two-Minute Warning
  • [4- 2:08] (No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Shough pass short middle to C.Donaldson to ATL 16 for 6 yards (K.Daniels).
  • [4- 2:31] (No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Shough pass short left to C.Olave to ATL 22 for 5 yards (H.Perkins).
  • [4- 3:02] (Shotgun) T.Shough pass deep left to C.Olave to ATL 27 for 23 yards (B.Bowman).
  • [4- 3:07] (Shotgun) T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to D.Vele.
  • [4- 3:47] (Shotgun) K.Miller up the middle to 50 for 4 yards (X.Watts; J.Woods).
  • [4- 4:28] (No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Shough pass short right to C.Donaldson to NO 46 for -1 yards (D.Hellams).
  • [4- 4:53] (Shotgun) T.Shough pass short left to D.Vele to NO 47 for 5 yards (C.Henderson).
  • [4- 5:33] (Shotgun) C.Donaldson up the middle to NO 42 for 6 yards (Z.Harrison).
  • [4- 5:40] T.Shough pass incomplete deep left to C.Olave (D.Hellams).
  • [4- 6:18] C.Donaldson up the middle to NO 36 for 3 yards (G.Dexter; C.Thomas).
  • [4- 6:47] C.Donaldson up the middle to NO 33 for 9 yards (K.Daniels).

Leaders

  • Tyler Shough (NO): 28/46, 278 YDS
  • Alvin Kamara (NO): 7 CAR, 23 YDS, 2 TD
  • Chris Olave (NO): 7 REC, 111 YDS
  • Michael Penix Jr. (ATL): 15/20, 223 YDS, 1 TD
  • Bijan Robinson (ATL): 19 CAR, 145 YDS, 2 TD
  • Drake London (ATL): 5 REC, 96 YDS

Game-day injuries

  • Christen Miller (NO) - Out
  • Zach Wilson (NO) - Out
  • Noah Fant (NO) - Out
  • Decamerion Richardson (NO) - Out
  • Kaden Elliss (NO) - Out
  • Jared Ivey (ATL) - Out
  • Jake Matthews (ATL) - Questionable
  • Za'Darius Smith (ATL) - Questionable
  • Cooper Rush (ATL) - Out
  • Ethan Onianwa (ATL) - Out
ATL

Tale of the tape

NO

Falcons vs Saints recent form

ATL 3-2 Falcons: last 5 games

  1. W35-14GB Sep 24 Green Bay Packers, 35-14
  2. L3-34CAR Sep 20 Carolina Panthers, 3-34
  3. L13-20PIT Sep 13 Pittsburgh Steelers, 13-20
  4. W19-17NO Jan 4 New Orleans Saints, 19-17
  5. W27-24LAR Dec 29, 2025 Los Angeles Rams, 27-24

NO 2-3 Saints: last 5 games

  1. L27-35LV Sep 27 Las Vegas Raiders, 27-35
  2. W24-17BAL Sep 20 Baltimore Ravens, 24-17
  3. L30-31DET Sep 13 Detroit Lions, 30-31
  4. L17-19ATL Jan 4 Atlanta Falcons, 17-19
  5. W34-26TEN Dec 28, 2025 Tennessee Titans, 34-26
Points scored, last 5ATL 97NO 132
Points allowed, last 5fewer is betterATL 109NO 128

Falcons vs Saints head-to-head

Since Nov 26, 2023: Falcons 4, Saints 2

  1. Jan 4, 2026Falcons 19-17
  2. Nov 23, 2025Falcons 24-10
  3. Nov 10, 2024Saints 20-17
  4. Sep 29, 2024Falcons 26-24
  5. Jan 7, 2024Saints 48-17
  6. Nov 26, 2023Falcons 24-15

Falcons vs Saints line movement

MONEYLINE Saints to win at Pinnacle

Market (latest pregame line)

Spread (NO)

-1

Total

48

Moneyline

ATL
-102
NO
-118

Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (26 snapshots)

  • Moneyline (NO) at FanDuel: opened -190, now -110
  • Spread (NO) at FanDuel: opened -3.5, now -1.5
  • Total at FanDuel: opened 45.5, now 47.5

Agatha's pick for Falcons vs Saints

The Saints. Agatha gave New Orleans a 52% chance to win at Caesars Superdome, New Orleans. It was Agatha's prediction for this game, sealed and graded like every pick.

TV: ESPN

Best Bets on this game

  1. nflFINAL
    Noah Fant Over 1.5 receptions
    Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints - 8:15 PM ET
    Void: player did not play
    62%
    VOIDLEAN1U
    VOID
    SEALED ODDS-161DraftKings
  2. nflFINAL
    Olamide Zaccheaus Under 1.5 receptions
    Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints - 8:15 PM ET
    62%
    WONLEAN1U
    WON
    SEALED ODDS-153DraftKings

Up next

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