AGATHANo gut feelings

Jaguars vs Bengals Prediction

Sunday, Oct 4, 2026, 1:00 PM ET, Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, Week 4

Agatha Research Desk, Updated

AGATHA'S PICKJacksonville JaguarsAWAYJacksonvilleJaguars

FINAL

2217

Cincinnati BengalsHOMECincinnatiBengals
53%WIN CHANCEJaguars to WinWON#271 SEALED

Win chance at the seal 53%

Agatha's pick: Jaguars to WinTHE VERDICT

Final score: Jaguars 22, Bengals 17

SEALED ODDS
+125Bovada
CLOSING ODDS
+120Bovada, at the start
STAKE
1 unitflat, every pick
RESULT
WON +1.25uat the sealed price
GRADED
4:17 PM ETreceipt #271

Also on this game: Jaguars +2.5, sealed at +100 (BoyleSports), receipt #268: WON +1.00u.

Game Center

Team1234T
JAX3103622
CIN037717

Play-by-play

  • [4- 1:56] L.Cooke punts 46 yards to CIN 7, Center-R.Matiscik. D.Meyers to CIN 17 for 10 yards (B.Combs).
  • [4- 1:56] (Run formation) PENALTY on JAX, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at CIN 48 - No Play.
  • [4- 2:00] (Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short left to P.Washington to CIN 16 for 39 yards (D.Hill).The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short left to P.Washington ran ob at CIN 48 for 7 yards (D.Turner).
  • [4- 2:00] Two-Minute Warning
  • [4- 2:23] T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 45 for 0 yards (D.Lawrence).
  • [4- 2:23] Timeout #3 by CIN at 02:23.
  • [4- 2:28] B.Tuten right guard to JAX 45 for no gain (B.Mafe; D.Lawrence).
  • [4- 2:28] Timeout #2 by CIN at 02:28.
  • [4- 2:34] (Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short middle to B.Strange to JAX 45 for 15 yards (R.Yeast).
  • [4- 2:34] Timeout #1 by CIN at 02:34.
  • [4- 2:42] T.Lawrence pass short left to B.Strange to JAX 30 for 4 yards (B.Carter).
  • [4- 3:24] B.Tuten right tackle to JAX 26 for -2 yards (B.Mafe, J.Battle).

Leaders

  • Joe Burrow (CIN): 39/54, 428 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
  • Chase Brown (CIN): 9 CAR, 10 YDS
  • Tee Higgins (CIN): 11 REC, 157 YDS
  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX): 18/23, 227 YDS, 1 TD
  • Bhayshul Tuten (JAX): 17 CAR, 73 YDS
  • Brenton Strange (JAX): 7 REC, 95 YDS

Game-day injuries

  • Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) - Out
  • Swayze Bozeman (CIN) - Out
  • B.J. Hill (CIN) - Out
  • Bryan Cook (CIN) - Out
  • Colbie Young (CIN) - Out
  • Eric Murray (JAX) - Questionable
  • Caleb Ransaw (JAX) - Questionable
  • Christian Braswell (JAX) - Out
  • Montaric Brown (JAX) - Out
  • CJ Williams (JAX) - Out
JAX

Tale of the tape

CIN

Jaguars vs Bengals recent form

JAX 3-2 Jaguars: last 5 games

  1. W35-6NE Sep 27 New England Patriots, 35-6
  2. L13-20DEN Sep 20 Denver Broncos, 13-20
  3. W34-10CLE Sep 13 Cleveland Browns, 34-10
  4. L24-27BUF Jan 11 Buffalo Bills, 24-27
  5. W41-7TEN Jan 4 Tennessee Titans, 41-7

CIN 3-2 Bengals: last 5 games

  1. L27-30PIT Sep 27 Pittsburgh Steelers, 27-30
  2. W20-6HOU Sep 20 Houston Texans, 20-6
  3. W33-27TB Sep 13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 33-27
  4. L18-20CLE Jan 4 Cleveland Browns, 18-20
  5. W37-14ARI Dec 28, 2025 Arizona Cardinals, 37-14
Points scored, last 5JAX 147CIN 135
Points allowed, last 5fewer is betterJAX 70CIN 97

Jaguars vs Bengals head-to-head

Since Dec 4, 2023: Bengals 2, Jaguars 0

  1. Sep 14, 2025Bengals 31-27
  2. Dec 4, 2023Bengals 34-31

Jaguars vs Bengals line movement

MONEYLINE Jaguars to win at Bovada

Market (latest pregame line)

Spread (CIN)

-2.5

Total

52.5

Moneyline

JAX
+122
CIN
-144

Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (26 snapshots)

  • Moneyline (CIN) at FanDuel: opened -144, now -144
  • Spread (CIN) at FanDuel: opened -2.5, now -2.5
  • Total at FanDuel: opened 50.5, now 52.5

Agatha's pick for Jaguars vs Bengals

The Jaguars. Agatha gave Jacksonville a 53% chance to win at Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati. It was Agatha's prediction for this game, sealed and graded like every pick.

TV: CBS

Agatha's other picks on this game

  1. nflFINAL
    Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals - 1:00 PM ET
    49%
    WONPRED1U
    WON
    SEALED ODDS+100BoyleSports

Up next

  1. Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ETJacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee TitansAgatha's call: Jacksonville Jaguars to win, 82%
  2. Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 PM ETPittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati BengalsAgatha's call: Cincinnati Bengals to win, 57%
  3. Thu, Nov 12, 8:15 PM ETWashington Commanders vs New York GiantsAgatha's call: New York Giants to win, 63%
  4. Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 AM ETNew England Patriots vs Detroit LionsAgatha's call: Detroit Lions to win, 56%
  5. Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ETKansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta FalconsAgatha's call: Kansas City Chiefs to win, 65%