AGATHANo gut feelings

Penguins vs Capitals Prediction

Wednesday, Oct 7, 2026, 7:30 PM ET, Capital One Arena, Washington

Agatha Research Desk, Updated

Pittsburgh PenguinsAWAYPittsburghPenguins

FINAL

0350

AGATHA'S PICKWashington CapitalsHOMEWashingtonCapitals
57%WIN CHANCECapitals to WinWON#489 SEALED

Win chance at the seal 57%

Agatha's pick: Capitals to WinTHE VERDICT

Final score: Capitals 5, Penguins 3

SEALED ODDS
-145Bovada
CLOSING ODDS
-147Bovada, at the start
STAKE
1 unitflat, every pick
RESULT
WON +0.69uat the sealed price
GRADED
10:13 PM ETreceipt #489

Game Center

Team123T
PIT1203
WSH2215

Play-by-play

  • [3- 20:00] Game End
  • [3- 20:00] End of 3rd Period
  • [3- 20:00] Jakob Chychrun Slashing
  • [3- 19:49] Takeaway by Ben Kindel
  • [3- 19:12] Kris Letang shot blocked by Alex Tuch
  • [3- 19:02] Giveaway by Erik Karlsson
  • [3- 19:00] Kris Letang shot blocked by Alex Tuch
  • [3- 18:29] Giveaway by Erik Karlsson
  • [3- 18:07] Erik Karlsson shot blocked by Ville Koivunen
  • [3- 18:04] Tommy Novak Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
  • [3- 17:02] Evgeni Malkin Tip-In Wide Right
  • [3- 16:34] Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Boone Jenner

Leaders

  • Tom Wilson (WSH): 1
  • Tom Wilson (WSH): 2
  • Tom Wilson (WSH): 3
  • Tommy Novak (PIT): 1
  • Kaedan Korczak (PIT): 1
  • Bryan Rust (PIT): 1

Game-day injuries

  • Matt Roy (WSH) - Out
  • Patrick Thomas (WSH) - Injured Reserve
  • Rasmus Sandin (WSH) - Injured Reserve
  • Andrei Kuzmenko (PIT) - Injured Reserve
  • Justin Brazeau (PIT) - Injured Reserve
  • Ryan Graves (PIT) - Injured Reserve
PIT

Tale of the tape

WSH

Penguins vs Capitals recent form

PIT 3-2 Penguins: last 5 games

  1. L2-3WPG Oct 5 Winnipeg Jets, 2-3
  2. W6-5MTL Oct 3 Montreal Canadiens, 6-5
  3. W7-0PHI Sep 30 Philadelphia Flyers, 7-0
  4. L0-1PHI Apr 29 Philadelphia Flyers, 0-1
  5. W3-2PHI Apr 27 Philadelphia Flyers, 3-2

WSH 4-1 Capitals: last 5 games

  1. L1-3TBL Oct 3 Tampa Bay Lightning, 1-3
  2. W5-2CAR Oct 2 Carolina Hurricanes, 5-2
  3. W2-1CBJ Apr 14 Columbus Blue Jackets, 2-1
  4. W3-0PIT Apr 12 Pittsburgh Penguins, 3-0
  5. W6-3PIT Apr 11 Pittsburgh Penguins, 6-3
Goals scored, last 5PIT 18WSH 17
Goals allowed, last 5fewer is betterPIT 11WSH 9

Penguins vs Capitals head-to-head

Since Apr 4, 2024: Penguins 4, Capitals 4

  1. Apr 12, 2026Capitals 3-0
  2. Apr 11, 2026Capitals 6-3
  3. Nov 6, 2025Penguins 5-3
  4. Apr 17, 2025Penguins 5-2
  5. Feb 22, 2025Capitals 8-3
  6. Jan 18, 2025Capitals 4-1
  7. Nov 8, 2024Penguins 4-2
  8. Apr 4, 2024Penguins 4-1

Penguins vs Capitals line movement

MONEYLINE Capitals to win at Bovada

Market (latest pregame line)

Spread (WSH)

-1.5

Total

6.5

Moneyline

PIT
+130
WSH
-147

Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (16 snapshots)

  • Moneyline (WSH) at FanDuel: opened -178, now -152
  • Spread (WSH) at FanDuel: opened -1.5, now -1.5
  • Total at FanDuel: opened 6.5, now 6.5

Agatha's pick for Penguins vs Capitals

The Capitals. Agatha gave Washington a 57% chance to win at Capital One Arena, Washington. It was one of Agatha's Best NHL Bets for Oct 7.

TV: TNT

Up next

  1. Wed, Nov 11, 10:00 PM ETPittsburgh Penguins vs San Jose SharksAgatha's call: Pittsburgh Penguins to win, 54%
  2. Thu, Nov 12, 7:00 PM ETWashington Capitals vs New Jersey DevilsAgatha's call: New Jersey Devils to win, 53%
  3. LIVETampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo SabresAgatha's call: Buffalo Sabres to win, 50%
  4. LIVENew York Rangers vs Calgary FlamesAgatha's call: Calgary Flames to win, 57%
  5. Wed, Nov 11, 9:00 PM ETPhiladelphia Flyers vs Edmonton OilersAgatha's call: Edmonton Oilers to win, 65%