John Castaneda vs Alatengheili Prediction
Agatha's call
Alatengheili to win50%
Alatengheili def. John Castaneda by Decision, R3. The pregame call held.
Why
Agatha rates John Castaneda 1538 and Alatengheili 1546, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database.
John Castaneda is 34: the model takes 17 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade.
Alatengheili is 34: the model takes 17 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade.
Alatengheili has not fought in 17 months: ring rust costs 6 rating points in the model.
Net gap after those adjustments: 2 rating points toward Alatengheili, which converts to 50-50.
No market line matched; this is Agatha's model alone.