AGATHANo gut feelings

UFC

Vanessa Demopoulos vs Yazmin Jauregui Prediction

Vanessa Demopoulos vs Yazmin Jauregui

Final: Yazmin Jauregui def. Vanessa Demopoulos

Agatha's call

Yazmin Jauregui to win61%

Yazmin Jauregui def. Vanessa Demopoulos by KO/TKO, R1. The pregame call held.

Why

Agatha rates Vanessa Demopoulos 1430 and Yazmin Jauregui 1484, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database.

Vanessa Demopoulos is 38: the model takes 36 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade.

Vanessa Demopoulos has not fought in 15 months: ring rust costs 4 rating points in the model.

Yazmin Jauregui has not fought in 24 months: ring rust costs 15 rating points in the model.

Net gap after those adjustments: 79 rating points toward Yazmin Jauregui, which converts to 61-39.

The market agrees: 85% for Yazmin Jauregui across 2 books.

Market (latest pregame line)

Spread (Vanessa Demopoulos)

+7.5

Total

2.5

Moneyline

Vanessa Demopoulos
7.00
Draw
41.00
Yazmin Jauregui
1.11

Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (1 snapshot)

  • Moneyline (home): opened 6.75, now 6.75
  • Moneyline (home): opened 5.51, now 7.48