AGATHANo gut feelings

UFC

Norma Dumont vs Ailin Perez Prediction

Norma Dumont vs Ailin Perez

Final: Ailin Perez def. Norma Dumont

Agatha's call

Ailin Perez to win50%

Ailin Perez def. Norma Dumont by Decision, R3. The pregame call held.

Why

Agatha rates Norma Dumont 1682 and Ailin Perez 1660, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database.

Norma Dumont is 35: the model takes 24 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade.

Net gap after those adjustments: 1 rating points toward Ailin Perez, which converts to 50-50.

The market agrees: 54% for Ailin Perez across 2 books.

Market (latest pregame line)

Spread (Norma Dumont)

+3.5

Total

2.5

Moneyline

Norma Dumont
2.40
Draw
41.00
Ailin Perez
1.63

Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (2 snapshots)

  • Moneyline (home): opened 2.10, now 2.35
  • Moneyline (home): opened 2.11, now 2.40