AGATHANo gut feelings

UFC

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott Prediction

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott

Agatha's call

Payton Talbott to win58%

Price 1.17 at Betfair

Why

Agatha rates Deiveson Figueiredo 1650 and Payton Talbott 1663, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database.

Deiveson Figueiredo is 38: the model takes 41 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade.

Net gap after those adjustments: 54 rating points toward Payton Talbott, which converts to 58-42.

The market agrees: 83% for Payton Talbott across 2 books.

Market (latest pregame line)

Total

2.5

Moneyline

Deiveson Figueiredo
5.75
Draw
33.00
Payton Talbott
1.15

Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (3 snapshots)

  • Moneyline (home): opened 5.15, now 5.75
  • Moneyline (home): opened 4.75, now 5.60