Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott Prediction
Agatha's call
Payton Talbott to win58%
Price 1.17 at Betfair
Why
Agatha rates Deiveson Figueiredo 1650 and Payton Talbott 1663, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database.
Deiveson Figueiredo is 38: the model takes 41 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade.
Net gap after those adjustments: 54 rating points toward Payton Talbott, which converts to 58-42.
The market agrees: 83% for Payton Talbott across 2 books.
Market (latest pregame line)
Total
2.5
Moneyline
- Deiveson Figueiredo
- 5.75
- Draw
- 33.00
- Payton Talbott
- 1.15
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (3 snapshots)
- Moneyline (home): opened 5.15, now 5.75
- Moneyline (home): opened 4.75, now 5.60