Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura Prediction
Agatha's call
Rinya Nakamura to win60%
Price 1.31 at BetMGM
Brady Hiestand def. Rinya Nakamura by Submission, R2. The pregame call missed.
Why
Agatha rates Brady Hiestand 1566 and Rinya Nakamura 1616, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database.
Brady Hiestand has not fought in 27 months: ring rust costs 19 rating points in the model.
Rinya Nakamura has not fought in 14 months: ring rust costs 2 rating points in the model.
Net gap after those adjustments: 67 rating points toward Rinya Nakamura, which converts to 60-40.
The market agrees: 74% for Rinya Nakamura across 4 books.
Market (latest pregame line)
Spread (Brady Hiestand)
+3.5
Total
2.5
Moneyline
- Brady Hiestand
- 4.12
- Draw
- 50.00
- Rinya Nakamura
- 1.25
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (2 snapshots)
- Moneyline (home): opened 3.60, now 4.00
- Moneyline (home): opened 3.65, now 3.84