AGATHANo gut feelings

UFC

Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simon Prediction

Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simon

Final: Montel Jackson def. Ricky Simon

Agatha's call

Montel Jackson to win58%

Montel Jackson def. Ricky Simon by KO/TKO, R2. The pregame call held.

Why

Agatha rates Montel Jackson 1690 and Ricky Simon 1631, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database.

Montel Jackson is 34: the model takes 15 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade.

Ricky Simon is 34: the model takes 12 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade.

Net gap after those adjustments: 57 rating points toward Montel Jackson, which converts to 58-42.

The market agrees: 61% for Montel Jackson across 2 books.

Market (latest pregame line)

Spread (Montel Jackson)

-3.5

Total

2.5

Moneyline

Montel Jackson
1.44
Draw
50.00
Ricky Simon
2.87

Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (2 snapshots)

  • Moneyline (home): opened 1.57, now 1.43
  • Moneyline (home): opened 1.57, now 1.44