AGATHANo gut feelings

UFC

Johnny Walker vs Mick Parkin Prediction

Johnny Walker vs Mick Parkin

Agatha's call

Johnny Walker to win57%

Price 1.71 at Betsson

Why

Agatha rates Johnny Walker 1646 and Mick Parkin 1588, built fight by fight from every UFC bout in her database.

Johnny Walker is 34: the model takes 15 rating points off for age past 32, where fighters historically fade.

Mick Parkin has not fought in 18 months: ring rust costs 8 rating points in the model.

Net gap after those adjustments: 50 rating points toward Johnny Walker, which converts to 57-43.

The market agrees: 57% for Johnny Walker across 1 book.

Market (latest pregame line)

Total

2.5

Moneyline

Johnny Walker
1.71
Draw
33.00
Mick Parkin
2.20

Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (4 snapshots)

  • Moneyline (home): opened 1.70, now 1.71
  • Moneyline (home): opened 1.67, now 1.67