Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings Prediction
Agatha's pick
78%WONEDGE1UWONSEALED ODDS1.42
Agatha's WNBA model prices Awak Kuier Under 1.5 threes at 78%, 12 points past the 66% implied at DraftKings, on a prop her blind three-season trial validated. Her recent log: 1, 0, 2, 1, 2 threes over her last five games (1.2 average); the under of 1.5 would have cashed in 3 of them.WNBA prop engine: model 78% under 1.5 vs market 66% (edge +11.7)- 56%WONEDGE1UWONSEALED ODDS1.83
On Jessica Shepard's assists number the model and the market split: 56% on her side of 5.5, roughly 51% implied at William Hill. She takes the 5-point difference. Her recent log: 12, 4, 6, 4, 1 assists over her last five games (5.4 average); the under of 5.5 would have cashed in 3 of them.WNBA prop engine: model 56% under 5.5 vs market 51% (edge +4.9) - 52%WONEDGE1UWONSEALED ODDS2.20
On Paige Bueckers' assists number the model and the market split: 52% on her side of 5.5, roughly 43% implied at FanDuel. She takes the 9-point difference. Her recent log: 3, 6, 11, 4, 8 assists over her last five games (6.4 average); the under of 5.5 would have cashed in 2 of them.WNBA prop engine: model 52% under 5.5 vs market 43% (edge +9.3) - Phoenix Mercury @ Dallas Wings - 1:00 PM ETFinal: Mercury 82 - Wings 87Void: player ruled out, did not play49%VOIDEDGE1UVOIDSEALED ODDS2.39Kahleah Copper's threes line sits at 1.5; Agatha reads the under at 49% while the market at William Hill implies about 39%. The 10-point gap is the pick. Her recent log: 2, 0, 3, 2, 1 threes over her last five games (1.6 average); the under of 1.5 would have cashed in 2 of them.WNBA prop engine: model 49% under 1.5 vs market 39% (edge +9.6)
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Board refreshes every 2 minutesGame Center
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 24 | 25 | 15 | 18 | 82 |
| DAL | 19 | 37 | 12 | 19 | 87 |
ESPN live win probability: DAL 100%
Play-by-play
- [4- 0.0] End of the 4th Quarter
- [4- 2.7] Arike Ogunbowale defensive rebound
- [4- 4.1] Natasha Mack misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
- [4- 9.7] Mercury Reset Timeout
- [4- 9.7] Paige Bueckers makes free throw 2 of 2
- [4- 9.7] Wings offensive team rebound
- [4- 9.7] Paige Bueckers misses free throw 1 of 2
- [4- 9.7] Natasha Mack personal take foul
- [4- 15.2] Lexi Held bad passturnover (Aziaha James steals)
- [4- 22.0] Mercury offensive team rebound
- [4- 23.8] Noemie Brochant misses 12-foot step back jumpshot
- [4- 27.4] Paige Bueckers lost ball turnover (Lexi Held steals)
Leaders
- Paige Bueckers (DAL): 26
- Arike Ogunbowale (DAL): 6
- Jessica Shepard (DAL): 6
- Lexi Held (PHX): 21
- Alyssa Thomas (PHX): 10
- Alyssa Thomas (PHX): 10
Game-day injuries
- Alanna Smith (DAL) - Out
- Azzi Fudd (DAL) - Out
- Costanza Verona (DAL) - Out
- Kahleah Copper (PHX) - Out
- Kelsey Plum (PHX) - Out
- Jovana Nogic (PHX) - Out
Market (latest pregame line)
Spread (DAL)
-10.5
Total
172.5
Moneyline
- PHX
- 4.90
- DAL
- 1.19
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (12 snapshots)
- Moneyline (home): opened 1.33, now 1.19
- Moneyline (home): opened 1.27, now 1.20