Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction
Agatha's pick

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles - 6:35 PM ETAgatha projects TOR 3, BAL 2Final: Jays 3 - Orioles 455%LOSTLEAN1ULOSTSEALED ODDS1.97
This pick exists because of 5 points of daylight: Agatha reads the Toronto Blue Jays at 55% while the best price, at Pinnacle, charges for only about 50%. The form line actually favors the Orioles, 5-5 to 4-6 over the last ten; the model weighs more than the last two weeks.Sealed Pick #1055 @ Sep 21, 6:20 PM ETFingerprint26a9ac3a4b7bd376835b2ecc15e6b3f2b19062f012fd54e28353b6491774c37cTransaction45fedbb3e10688cbe97e9674b50c37d26a65af6a3b7bbcba965cc892b41e23cbOpen keyb284c1be45f703b8c88dc29c67c6aab243a712ab52d687f17e67ad535ba4b857
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles - 6:35 PM ETFinished with 3 Ks64%LOSTLEAN1ULOSTSEALED ODDS2.15
The strikeout line on Trey Yesavage sits at 3.5. Agatha reads the over 19 points richer than the market: 64% against an implied 45% at Hard Rock. His recent work: 0, 4, 9, 9, 1 strikeouts over his last five starts (4.8 average); the over of 3.5 would have cashed in 3 of them. The matchup helps: Baltimore Orioles hitters strike out 9.5 times a game, ranking 3 of 30 in strikeout-proneness over the last four months.Sealed Pick #1056 @ Sep 21, 6:20 PM ETFingerprinta6c6b88f827c1ee21d7a7047641acd8874340976114d55b07da9464b08917695Transaction70652e43b5592a89626e402a5486979518414f66a2996feac60d40d5ba48a56cOpen keyb284c1be45f703b8c88dc29c67c6aab243a712ab52d687f17e67ad535ba4b857
56%WONLEAN1UWONSEALED ODDS1.62
Her strikeout read on Shane Baz: Under 4.5. His recent work: 2, 5, 6, 4, 3 strikeouts over his last five starts (5.1 average); the under of 4.5 would have cashed in 3 of them.Sealed Pick #1057 @ Sep 21, 6:20 PM ETFingerprint38fdc076755dded762ee9000f68b46e989ca1e0bc33806bba646ecef5c63094eTransactionf5f6ec852f7d215f75984049dcc674d16ccdf9653d8fefe3e4b202b70fa3db24Open keyb284c1be45f703b8c88dc29c67c6aab243a712ab52d687f17e67ad535ba4b857
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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| BAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | 4 |
ESPN live win probability: BAL 100%
Play-by-play
- [9] Smith flied out to left.
- [9] Pitch 7 : Ball In Play
- [9] Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
- [9] Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking
- [9] Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking
- [9] Pitch 3 : Ball 3
- [9] Pitch 2 : Ball 2
- [9] Pitch 1 : Ball 1
- [9] Rico Garcia pitches to Josh Smith
- [9] Okamoto struck out swinging.
Game-day injuries
- Samuel Basallo (BAL) - Day-To-Day
- Blaze Alexander (BAL) - 10-Day-IL
- Luis Robert Jr. (BAL) - 10-Day-IL
- Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) - 60-Day-IL
- Jackson Holliday (BAL) - 10-Day-IL
- Anthony Santander (TOR) - 60-Day-IL
- Jonatan Clase (TOR) - 60-Day-IL
- Luis Urias (TOR) - 10-Day-IL
- Brett Bateman (TOR) - Day-To-Day
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - Day-To-Day
Market (latest pregame line)
Spread (BAL)
+1.5
Total
7.5
Moneyline
- TOR
- 1.94
- BAL
- 1.96
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (9 snapshots)
- Moneyline (home): opened 1.91, now 1.91
- Moneyline (home): opened 1.97, now 1.94