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Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals

Final: Cleveland Guardians 11, Kansas City Royals 5

Agatha's call

Kansas City Royals to win53%

Price 1.97 at BetRivers

Projected final: Cleveland Guardians 3, Kansas City Royals 4

Why

Agatha and the market disagree here, and she is taking her own side: 53% on the Kansas City Royals against an implied 49% at BetRivers, a 4-point gap. Form check: the Royals are 2-8 over their last ten, the Guardians 8-2.

Player props

  • Tanner Bibee Over 3.5 strikeouts - 1.82 at FanDuel - 53%
  • Michael Wacha Over 3.5 strikeouts - 1.76 at Pinnacle - 52%

Game Center

Team123456789T
CLE04100110411
KC3000000205

ESPN live win probability: KC 0%

Play-by-play

  • [9] End of the 9th inning
  • [9] Jensen flied out to left.
  • [9] Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
  • [9] Pitch 2 : Ball 2
  • [9] Pitch 1 : Ball 1
  • [9] Slade Cecconi pitches to Carter Jensen
  • [9] Collins lined out to center.
  • [9] Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
  • [9] Pitch 1 : Ball 1
  • [9] Slade Cecconi pitches to Isaac Collins

Game-day injuries

  • Craig Kimbrel (KC) - bereavement
  • Connor Seabold (KC) - 60-Day-IL
  • James McArthur (KC) - 60-Day-IL
  • Steven Cruz (KC) - Paternity
  • Nick Loftin (KC) - paternity
  • Rhys Hoskins (CLE) - 10-Day-IL
  • Colin Holderman (CLE) - 15-Day-IL

Market (latest pregame line)

Spread (KC)

+1.5

Total

8.5

Moneyline

CLE
1.93
KC
1.97

Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (11 snapshots)

  • Moneyline (home): opened 2.05, now 1.95
  • Moneyline (home): opened 2.13, now 1.97

Trends

Trends describe the past. They are not predictions and carry no edge - Agatha's pick is made independently.

Cleveland Guardians

  • The Guardians are 54-44 as favorites this season, their role tonight (-6.0u flat at closing prices).
  • The over has hit in 26 of the last 50 Guardians games with a closing total (-0.9u flat).
  • The Guardians are 9-1 over their last 10 games.
  • The Guardians are 7-3 over their last 10 on the road.

Kansas City Royals

  • The Royals are 41-68 as underdogs this season, their role tonight (-18.2u flat at closing prices).
  • The under has hit in 27 of the last 50 Royals games with a closing total (+1.3u flat).
  • The Royals are 2-8 over their last 10 games.
  • The Royals are 3-7 over their last 10 at home.

Season series: the Guardians lead 7-5.

Priced trends settle against Agatha's own closing-line archive (tracked since May 2023) at flat 1u stakes.