Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Agatha's pick
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers - 2:10 PM ETAgatha projects CIN 5, MIL 6Final: Reds 4 - Brewers 358%LOSTLEAN1ULOSTSEALED ODDS1.51
The lean is the Milwaukee Brewers, 58% on Agatha's model. Recent form splits them: 7-3 for the Brewers, 4-6 for the Reds. Her numbers play it out 6-5 in favor of the Brewers.Sealed Pick #489 @ Sep 13, 1:55 PM ETFingerprint969481175cecb14e4da515570645f626f27f8e73a54b44415c7116301211a1d7Transaction267d19dc1cac05ce440a44e15fbb6888b49144328ca962491fe792081eb42f58Open key91bed9ccb5baec3884bd1e96228d8883dff4d2e7c1982d68fccc58fa913efcef- 65%WONLEAN1UWONSEALED ODDS1.69
Agatha prices Chase Burns' over of 3.5 strikeouts at 65%; the market's number at DraftKings implies about 57%. That 8-point disagreement is the call. His recent work: 5, 7, 5, 8, 8 strikeouts over his last five starts (6.5 average); the over of 3.5 would have cashed in 5 of them. The matchup helps: Milwaukee Brewers hitters strike out 8.5 times a game, ranking 9 of 30 in strikeout-proneness over the last four months.Sealed Pick #490 @ Sep 13, 1:55 PM ETFingerprintb80d90afca71049e5c8a5947779e9c050f8bb24b48e29d2ec1532fe31c947ea1Transaction4548bc234260ed13d54e7b9c66fb81668a56ed1ac7dd818c06b0e46435a2aaeeOpen key91bed9ccb5baec3884bd1e96228d8883dff4d2e7c1982d68fccc58fa913efcef - Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers - 2:10 PM ETFinished with 5 Ks55%WONLEAN1UWONSEALED ODDS1.67One pitcher, one number: Robert Gasser Over 4.5 strikeouts. The log says 5, 4, 4, 7, 3 Ks across his last five starts, a 4.8 average, with this side landing in 2.Sealed Pick #491 @ Sep 13, 1:55 PM ETFingerprintcb3a23a6ed10bc70127d767fd03e9b99c6d5a9a7b0084621bb71eb698574ca35Transactionfeeddf364bba42ebd240426f71fef3f2ef50c23673760a320f86fa9baf1d4c32Open key91bed9ccb5baec3884bd1e96228d8883dff4d2e7c1982d68fccc58fa913efcef
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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| MIL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
ESPN live win probability: MIL 0%
Play-by-play
- [9] End of the 9th inning
- [9] Yelich fouled out to left.
- [9] Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
- [9] Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
- [9] Emilio Pagan pitches to Christian Yelich
- [9] Hamilton ran for Bauers
- [9] Bauers grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Turang out at second.
- [9] Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
- [9] Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking
- [9] Pitch 3 : Ball 2
Game-day injuries
- Bryse Wilson (MIL) - 15-Day-IL
- Rob Zastryzny (MIL) - 60-Day-IL
- Grant Anderson (MIL) - 15-Day-IL
- Brandon Woodruff (MIL) - 60-Day-IL
- Quinn Priester (MIL) - 60-Day-IL
- Matt McLain (CIN) - Day-To-Day
- Spencer Steer (CIN) - 10-Day-IL
- Michael Toglia (CIN) - 60-Day-IL
- Blake Dunn (CIN) - 60-Day-IL
- Hunter Greene (CIN) - 60-Day-IL
Market (latest pregame line)
Spread (MIL)
-1.5
Total
8
Moneyline
- CIN
- 2.68
- MIL
- 1.49
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (8 snapshots)
- Moneyline (home): opened 1.50, now 1.50
- Moneyline (home): opened 1.51, now 1.52