Kansas City Royals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
Agatha's pick
Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates - 6:40 PM ETAgatha projects KC 1, PIT 5Final: Royals 5 - Pirates 864%WONLEAN1UWONSEALED ODDS1.53
The market at BetMGM prices the Pittsburgh Pirates near 63%; Agatha's number is 64%. A gap of 1 points is the reason this is a pick and not a pass. Working against the Royals: 6 losses in their last ten games, while the Pirates sit 6-4.Sealed Pick #751 @ Sep 18, 6:26 PM ETFingerprint7ab33e1e7179a775dad02eb59742aed9ef8cad385ec67be5237dc588b126ced1Transaction52d55e559b277e926943b462d11a61c6c679a7f1a0de5066265a2e7f62a4b4a6Open keyc35783a3f62661ee3dd367f65a9b62c0ac54ac40a4b1a452741537bb5cdf90bb- Kansas City Royals at Pittsburgh Pirates - 6:40 PM ETFinished with 1 Ks57%LOSTLEAN1ULOSTSEALED ODDS2.10Randy Dobnak Over 3.5 strikeouts: her model says 57%, the price at BetMGM implies 44%, and the 12-point gap does the talking. His recent work: 4, 3, 6, 5, 4 strikeouts over his last five starts (4.1 average); the over of 3.5 would have cashed in 4 of them. The matchup helps: Pittsburgh Pirates hitters strike out 9.4 times a game, ranking 4 of 30 in strikeout-proneness over the last four months.Sealed Pick #752 @ Sep 18, 6:26 PM ETFingerprint70071d2a5909b4e1ab67228c60dc10cba8b046dadb2c268f2a546f8c8d4155dbTransactionc4c42f5b5e1df2da28942e941ee605abf42739b57cc6d99d23075525b066aaa0Open keyc35783a3f62661ee3dd367f65a9b62c0ac54ac40a4b1a452741537bb5cdf90bb
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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - | 8 |
ESPN live win probability: PIT 100%
Play-by-play
- [9] Tolbert struck out swinging.
- [9] Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
- [9] Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
- [9] Pitch 4 : Ball 2
- [9] Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
- [9] Pitch 2 : Ball 1
- [9] Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
- [9] Gregory Soto pitches to Tyler Tolbert
- [9] Tolbert hit for Isbel
- [9] Loftin doubled to second.
Game-day injuries
- Kirby Yates (PIT) - 15-Day-IL
- Isaac Mattson (PIT) - 15-Day-IL
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) - 10-Day-IL
- Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) - 15-Day-IL
- Mitch Keller (PIT) - 60-Day-IL
- Jac Caglianone (KC) - Day-To-Day
- Connor Seabold (KC) - 60-Day-IL
- Tony Gonsolin (KC) - 15-Day-IL
- James McArthur (KC) - 60-Day-IL
- Beck Way (KC) - 15-Day-IL
Market (latest pregame line)
Spread (PIT)
-1.5
Total
8.5
Moneyline
- KC
- 2.61
- PIT
- 1.51
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (2 snapshots)
- Moneyline (home): opened 1.54, now 1.53
- Moneyline (home): opened 1.61, now 1.55