Illinois vs Michigan State Prediction
Saturday, Oct 10, 2026, 3:30 PM ET, Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Week 6
Agatha Research Desk, Updated
AWAYIllinois2-3PREDICTED SCOREPREDICTED SETSMATCHUPLIVEDELAYEDFINALPOSTPONEDLIVE
Predicted --
HOMEMichigan State2-3Win chance at the seal 58%
Final score: Illinois 38, Michigan State 37
- SEALED ODDS
- -132FanDuel
- CLOSING ODDS
- -137FanDuel, at the start
- STAKE
- 1 unitflat, every pick
- RESULT
- WON +0.76uat the sealed price
- GRADED
- 7:22 PM ETreceipt #688
Game Center
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 10 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 38 |
| Michigan State | 0 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 37 |
Leaders
- Alessio Milivojevic (MSU): 22/26, 196 YDS, 2 TD
- Jaziun Patterson (MSU): 17 CAR, 93 YDS, 3 TD
- Jayden Savoury (MSU): 6 REC, 49 YDS
- Katin Houser (ILL): 20/29, 194 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Aidan Laughery (ILL): 17 CAR, 70 YDS
- Hudson Clement (ILL): 6 REC, 105 YDS, 1 TD
IllinoisTale of the tape
Michigan StateThis season
Illinois vs Michigan State recent form
WHYIllinois 2-3 Illinois: last 5 games
- L17-24 Oct 3 Purdue, 17-24
- L19-42 Sep 26 Ohio State, 19-42
- W48-10 Sep 19 Southern Illinois, 48-10
- L27-31 Sep 12 Duke, 27-31
- W42-23 Sep 3 UAB, 42-23
Michigan State 2-3 Michigan State: last 5 games
- L3-31 Oct 3 Wisconsin, 3-31
- L13-31 Sep 26 Nebraska, 13-31
- L10-27 Sep 19 Notre Dame, 10-27
- W35-7 Sep 12 Eastern Michigan, 35-7
- W30-20 Sep 4 Toledo, 30-20
Illinois vs Michigan State head-to-head
WHYSince Nov 16, 2024: Illinois 1, Michigan State 0
- Nov 16, 2024Illinois 38-16
Illinois vs Michigan State line movement
Market (latest pregame line)
Spread (Michigan State)
+3
Total
48.5
Moneyline
- Illinois
- -145
- Michigan State
- +125
Line movement, tracked by Agatha since first sighting (26 snapshots)
- Moneyline (Michigan State) at FanDuel: opened +100, now +114
- Spread (Michigan State) at FanDuel: opened +1.5, now +2.5
- Total at FanDuel: opened 52.5, now 48.5
Illinois vs Michigan State betting trends
Trends describe the past. They are not predictions and carry no edge - Agatha's pick is made independently.
Records against the line most North American sportsbooks closed at: win-loss against the spread, over-under on the total, a push third.
Agatha's pick for Illinois vs Michigan State
Illinois. Agatha gave Illinois a 58% chance to win at Spartan Stadium, East Lansing. It was one of Agatha's Best NCAAF Bets for Oct 10.
Why Agatha picked Illinois
Michigan State has lost three games in a row, including 31-3 at Wisconsin on Oct 3 and 31-13 to Nebraska at home on Sep 26. Illinois won the last meeting 38-16 at home on Nov 16, 2024, scores 30.6 points a game, and beat Southern Illinois 48-10 at home on Sep 19. Agatha's prediction is a 29-27 Illinois win, about a 6-in-10 chance. The risk is Illinois has lost two games in a row, and the game is at Spartan Stadium, Michigan State's home ground.
TV: FS1